银河期货铁合金日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 22, 2025, ferroalloy futures prices rose and then fell. The silicon ferro - alloy (SF) main contract closed at 5648, down 1.53% with a decrease in positions, while the silicon manganese (SM) main contract closed at 5870, down 1.58% with an increase in positions [7]. - For SF, the spot price was stable with a slight increase on the 22nd. Supply was high with a slight decline in the sample enterprise's operating rate. Demand was supported by high iron - water production due to high steel billet exports. After the price decline, the valuation was not high and the cost was supportive, so short positions could be reduced or put options could be sold for protection [7]. - For SM, the manganese ore spot was stable on the 22nd, and the SM spot price was stable with a slight decline. Supply decreased but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production. The manganese ore price was firm due to low port inventories. After the price decline, there was cost support, and short positions could also be reduced or put options could be sold for protection [7]. - The trading strategies were to reduce short positions or sell put options for single - side trading, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to sell put options for options trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Data: The SF main contract had a closing price of 5648, a daily change of - 88, and a weekly change of - 52. The trading volume was 281,849 with a daily increase of 52,126, and the open interest was 211,764 with a daily decrease of 11,755. The SM main contract had a closing price of 5870, a daily change of - 94, and a weekly change of - 36. The trading volume was 335,892 with a daily increase of 169,079, and the open interest was 339,805 with a daily increase of 5304 [4]. - Spot Data: SF spot prices were stable with a slight increase in some regions, rising 30 - 250 yuan/ton. SM spot prices were stable with a slight decline in some regions, falling 20 yuan/ton [4][7]. - Basis/Spread Data: The basis and spreads of SF and SM showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 222, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of - 16 [4]. - Raw Material Data: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable with small weekly changes. Lanthanum semi - coke prices in some regions increased [4]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategies: Unilateral trading: Reduce short positions or sell put options due to low valuation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell put options [8]. - Important Information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to set the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% from 2025 - 2026, and required over 80% of steel production capacity to complete ultra - low emission transformation by the end of 2025. In August 2025, China's steel billet exports reached 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 230%. From January to August, the cumulative steel billet exports were 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 292% [9]. Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts showed the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and profits [10][15][17][22].