美联储如期降息25基点，资本市场表现偏空供需两端显疲态，棉市旺季遇冷承压前行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected interest rate cut failed to boost the capital market, leading to a bearish market. The Zhengzhou cotton 2601 main contract was weak, breaking through the previous support level. Key variables to focus on are the Fed's future interest rate cut rhythm and its potential impact on China's Q4 economic control policies. [3][37] - The cotton market's peak season fell significantly short of expectations. The downstream demand was under pressure with insufficient new orders and slower shipment, but inventory was still being reduced. The supply side also lacked positive support, and cotton prices may remain under pressure in the short term. [3][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - Weekly Data Overview: By September 19, the CRB commodity price index slightly declined, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December dropped 0.46 cents/lb, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract for January 26 closed at 13,720 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton with increased positions. Some commodities like gold rose, while others like crude oil, soybeans, and corn fell. [2][10][11] - Imported Cotton Quotes: The CNF quotes of imported cotton at main ports in various countries increased slightly from September 12 to 19. [9] Part II: Domestic Market Situation - Textile Raw Material Trends: On September 19, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to September 12, with polyester staple fiber rising and viscose falling. [15] - Yarn Price Trends: Domestic yarn prices increased, while the RMB - denominated prices of imported pure - cotton yarns slightly decreased due to RMB depreciation. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed. [19][21][24] - Cotton Price Comparison: On September 19, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,283 yuan/ton. The price difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty increased, and the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also widened. [27] Part III: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 4,232 (280,000 tons), with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased compared to September 12. [30] - Futures - Spot Price Difference: On September 19, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton widened compared to September 12. [33] - Price Analysis: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. After the rate cut, the stock and commodity markets declined. In August 2025, China's cotton imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. New cotton has started to be listed sporadically. The domestic demand for clothing and textiles was weak. Technically, the indicators of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract weakened. [34][35][39] Part IV: International Market Analysis - US Cotton Exports: From September 5 - 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton net signings increased, while shipments decreased. Net signings of Pima cotton increased, but shipments decreased. [42] - ICE Cotton Futures: On September 19, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December decreased by 0.46 cents/lb, and the technical indicators weakened. [46] Part V: Operation Suggestions - Upstream cotton enterprises can hedge risks by hedging on the futures market or buying put options based on the cost of lint cotton calculated from the purchase price of seed cotton. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of lint cotton procurement when raw material prices fall. [48]