瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250922

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom under the influence of policy signals. Recently, the market has been sensitive to negative news, with weak overall recovery momentum. There is a certain deviation between short - term pricing and fundamentals, and sentiment has become the main driving factor. However, in the context of a weak economic recovery, the possibility of a trend - like decline in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, and also pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.975，涨幅0.2%，成交量79097，环比减少61100；TF主力收盘价105.770，涨幅0.13%，成交量50317，环比减少41922；TS主力收盘价102.398，涨幅0.04%，成交量28858，环比减少6939；TL主力收盘价115.130，涨幅0.22%，成交量113691，环比减少65848 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.34，环比增加0.02；T2512 - 2603价差0.35，环比增加0.01；TF2512 - 2603价差0.13，环比增加0.00；TS2512 - 2603价差0.07，环比减少0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.16，环比减少0.19；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.21，环比减少0.05；TS12 - T12价差 - 5.58，环比减少0.11；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.37，环比减少0.06 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量226111，前20名空头持仓215122，增加1880，前20名多头持仓增加4384，前20名净空仓209576，增加4004；TF主力持仓量133337，增加2976，前20名多头持仓122634，增加1910，前20名空头持仓131714，增加3231，前20名净空仓9080，增加1321；TS主力持仓量69343，增加1123，前20名多头持仓56152，减少881，前20名空头持仓59654，减少2318，前20名净空仓3502，减少1437；TL主力持仓量147058，增加151，前20名多头持仓129337，增加3129，前20名空头持仓140904，增加1006，前20名净空仓11567，减少2123 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(6y)净价106.2484，增加0.1339；250018.IB(6y)净价99.0955，增加0.0632；230006.IB(4y)净价105.3031，减少0.0782；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，增加0.0519；250012.IB(1.7y)净价99.943，增加0.0042；220016.IB(2y)净价101.9621，增加0.0046；230009.IB(17y)净价120.494，增加0.2314；210014.IB(18y)净价126.6235，减少0.5765 [2] 3.5 Treasury Bond Active Bonds - 1y收益率1.3900%，持平；3y收益率1.5100%，增加9.25bp；5y收益率1.6050%，增加2.20bp；7y收益率1.7250%，增加2.50bp；10y收益率1.7950%，增加1.25bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.4319%，减少5.81bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.4270%，减少3.40bp；银质押7天利率1.5167%，减少1.33bp；Shibor7天利率1.4660%，减少2.20bp；银质押14天利率1.6500%，增加2.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.6750%，增加2.80bp；1y LPR利率3.00%，持平；5y LPR利率3.5%，持平 [2] 3.7 Open Market Operations - 发行规模2405亿，到期规模2800亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净回笼 - 395亿 [2] 3.8 Industry News - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance. In the future, multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to ensure sufficient liquidity. - On September 22, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. Starting from September 19, the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations in the open market have been adjusted. - The LPR quotation in September remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2] 3.9 Key Points to Focus On - On September 24 at 00:35, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook. - On September 26 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for August will be released [3]