万联晨会-20250923

Core Insights - The SW computer industry showed significant recovery in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing year-on-year, indicating improved profitability and operational quality [9][10] - In H1 2025, the SW computer industry achieved operating revenue of 611.408 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.77%, with a growth rate improvement of 4.56 percentage points [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.859 billion, a substantial year-on-year growth of 40.99%, reflecting enhanced profitability [9] Market Review - On September 22, 2025, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.55% [2][7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2,121.246 billion [2][7] - The electronic, computer, and non-ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while social services, beauty care, and retail sectors lagged [2][7] Important News - The Chinese capital market has achieved steady growth in quantity and effective improvement in quality during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development in the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][8] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development to stabilize the market and expectations [3][8] Investment Highlights - In Q2 2025, the SW computer industry recorded operating revenue of 329.660 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.28%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.541 billion, up 19.77% year-on-year [10] - The industry experienced a decline in gross margin by 2.55 percentage points to 23.25%, attributed to rising costs in raw materials, labor, and logistics [11] - The overall period expense ratio decreased by 2.57 percentage points to 21.21%, indicating effective cost management [11] Subsector Performance - The performance of various subsectors within the SW computer industry showed divergence, with computer equipment outperforming IT services and software development [11] - The IT services subsector had high revenue but low gross margins, while the security equipment subsector maintained stable revenue and strong profitability [11] - The demand in AI and trusted computing sectors significantly boosted revenue in related fields, while traditional sectors like industrial IT and medical IT saw revenue declines [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI and trusted computing as key investment themes, emphasizing the acceleration of AI product commercialization and the demand for computing power in AI applications [12] - Monitor the growth of central procurement needs and the penetration of trusted computing products in various sectors [12]