宝城期货橡胶早报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing oscillations, and intraday trends being weakly oscillating [1][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Futures Contracts - For the Shanghai rubber (RU) 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, with the intraday being weakly oscillating, and the reference view is a weak operation; for the synthetic rubber (BR) 2511 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, with the intraday being weakly oscillating, and the reference view is also a weak operation [1] 2. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Standards - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day, used to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3] - The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, not to short - term and medium - term views [4] 3. Price and Driving Logic of Specific Futures Contracts Shanghai Rubber (RU) - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.26% at 15,600 yuan/ton in the night trading on Monday. Due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected and the dot - plot showing a slower - than - expected future interest rate cut schedule, along with the supply increase in the rubber market, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - The synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract closed slightly up 0.04% at 11,500 yuan/ton in the night trading on Monday. Due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected and the dot - plot showing a slower - than - expected future interest rate cut schedule, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [6]