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国新国证期货早报-20250923
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:17

Variety Views - On September 22, A-share major indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22% to 3828.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% to 13157.97 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.55% to 3107.89 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.38% to 1408.64 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2121.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 202.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on September 22, closing at 4522.61, up 20.69 [1]. - On September 22, the coke weighted index adjusted and closed at 1733.0, down 7.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1227.7 yuan, up 0.5 [1][2]. - The coke spot may start the third round of price cuts, but some coking enterprises propose price increases, intensifying the game between steel and coking. The coking coal supply is disturbed, but the mine output continues to increase this week, indicating limited impact. The spot transaction has rebounded to a high level, the Mongolian coal price has been raised twice, and the upstream inventory has been destocked for three consecutive weeks, with improving demand [3]. - Affected by the decline in the spot price, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on September 22. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year-on-year. The total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,800 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 44,200 tons [3]. - Affected by the technical level and the rebound of Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on September 22. As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.76% [4]. - On September 22, the CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of the week of September 21, the US soybean good and excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62% and the same period last year of 64%. The soybean harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12% and the same period last year of 12%. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton on September 22, up 0.66%. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate is high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise [4][6]. - On September 22, the LH2511 contract closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. In September, the supply of standard pigs increased significantly, and the market supply pressure was large. The demand was supported by the approaching holidays, but the futures price may remain weak in the short term [6]. - On September 22, the palm oil futures fluctuated slightly. The high-frequency data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.57% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month-on-month, and the production decreased by 7.89% month-on-month. Different institutions' data on export volume showed different trends [7]. - After the Fed cut interest rates in September, the market sentiment improved, and the copper price rebounded. The downstream may have some stocking demand before the National Day, which supports the copper price [8]. - On the night of September 22, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,575 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 136 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of new cotton in Xinjiang on September 22 was 6.2 - 6.67 yuan/kg in the northern region and about 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg in the southern region [8]. - On September 22, the log 2511 contract opened at 805, with the lowest at 801, the highest at 813.5, and closed at 807.5, with a reduction of 438 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. In August, the log import volume was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24% [8][9]. - On September 22, the iron ore 2601 contract rose 0.37% to close at 808.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume rebounded, the arrival volume continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. Steel mills have stocking demand before the festival, and the molten iron output increased slightly at a high level [9]. - On September 22, the asphalt 2511 contract fell 0.7% to close at 3401 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume rebounded. The demand in the north was supported by the weather, while the rain in the south hindered the demand [9]. - On September 22, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3185 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3380 yuan/ton. The steel demand continued to recover slowly in September, and the supply - demand relationship improved slightly. The cost supported the steel price, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate at a high level [10]. - On September 22, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2934 yuan/ton. There was a slight disturbance at the mine end, and the domestic bauxite port inventory decreased significantly. The alumina production capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory reached a new high, and the spot prices at home and abroad fell [10]. - On September 22, the al2511 contract was reported at 20745 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply remained stable at a high level, the exchange inventories at home and abroad continued to increase, and the overall improvement of downstream demand was still less than that of the same period in previous years [11].