新一轮预期博弈即将开启，黑色板块逐步具备多配性价比

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Although the prices of the black sector may experience short - term periodic corrections due to real - time demand, in the medium to long term, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for multi - allocation. The key factor to watch is the emergence of a new demand engine. If it appears, the steel industry may start a new upward cycle; otherwise, prices may enter a consolidation phase and require a longer period of bottom - building [1][23]. Summary by Relevant Points Background of the Black Sector - Since 2022, the black sector has been characterized by "weak reality" due to the real estate downturn. The market has been playing the same game of policy "expectations" against the backdrop of "weak reality". In the fourth quarter of this year, the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - to late October, which will plan for the "15th Five - Year Plan", will be a crucial node for future expectation games [1][4]. Differences in This Expectation Game Price Decline Dynamics - The downward momentum of prices is objectively waning and has been compressed to near - extreme levels. Taking the rebar price index as an example, the magnitude and time of new lows have significantly shrunk, from nearly 14% and 5 months initially to less than 4% and one month most recently [7]. Fed's Interest - Rate Cut - The Fed has officially entered an interest - rate cut cycle, and with the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress on July 3, 2024, it is relatively certain that overseas markets will enter a phase of both fiscal and monetary expansion, which is beneficial for global demand and commodity prices. Unlike previous recession - driven interest - rate cuts, the current US economy has not shown obvious signs of weakness, so commodity prices may not decline significantly before rising [9][10]. China's Capacity - Reduction Experience - China has rich experience in capacity reduction. In 1998 - 2002 and 2015 - 2016, the country effectively addressed over - capacity issues and emerged from insufficient demand and low inflation. With strong national will and sufficient fiscal policy space, demand - side policies supporting the "anti - involution" initiative are still worth anticipating [15][16]. Industry Cycle - The black sector has a cycle of approximately five years, and currently, it is approaching a critical cycle turning point. Historically, the steel industry cycle was closely related to the real estate cycle. However, under the current real - estate policy background, a new demand engine outside of real estate is needed to start a new cycle. The development of the Great Northwest is being considered, but its demand scale and time span are still under evaluation [19][22].