宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall view for major agricultural commodity futures (including soymeal, palm oil, etc.) is mostly "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - Time - frame Views: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - Core Logic: News about Sino - US trade relations affects market sentiment. The domestic soybean industry chain is weak, with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis for soymeal. Short - term prices will be weak, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream stocking, Sino - US trade progress, and import purchasing [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Core Logic: Import profit inversion restricts new purchases. High near - month arrivals and limited downstream demand lead to inventory pressure. The short - term market lacks a single driver and is affected by policy expectations, export data, and inventory changes [7]. Other Related Varieties (as shown in the table) - Soybean Oil 2601: Views are oscillating in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a reference view of oscillating weakly. Influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - Palm 2601: Views are oscillating in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a reference view of oscillating weakly. Influencing factors include its biodiesel property, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].