白糖：关注“桦加沙”对蔗区的影响

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the sugar market, highlighting the need to monitor the impact of Super Typhoon "Hagasha" on sugar - cane growing areas. It also presents various data on the supply and demand of sugar in domestic and international markets, as well as changes in production, sales, and exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 15.85 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.33. The mainstream spot price is 5850 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan year - on - year, and the futures main contract price is 5452 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year - on - year [1]. - The 15 spread is 20 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year, and the 59 spread is - 23 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 398 yuan per ton, down 51 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information indicates the need to pay attention to the impact of Super Typhoon "Hagasha" on sugar - producing areas. In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year, while exports decreased, with 374 tons exported in August, a 5% year - on - year reduction, and 359 tons in July, also a 5% year - on - year reduction [1]. - Conab lowered the forecast for Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons from the previous 45.9 million tons. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August, an increase of 60,000 tons [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that in the 24/25 season, China's sugar production will be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of August, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 4.08 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons [2]. - In the 25/26 season, the market anticipates a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season [3]. - As of September 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 4.8 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 26.76 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons, and the cumulative MIX at 52.76%, an increase of 3.67 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, up from 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].