棉花：新棉上市压力令期价承压

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - New cotton listing pressure weighs on cotton futures prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,610 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.80%, and the overnight closing price was 13,575 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The trading volume was 429,911 lots, an increase of 103,594 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 737,548 lots, an increase of 26,552 lots. The closing price of CY2511 was 19,675 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 19,665 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 12,216 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 16,034 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE Cotton No. 12 was 66.25 cents/pound with a decline of 0.08% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, a decrease of 136 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 12, unchanged from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The price of Nanjang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.86 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 0.85% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,433 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread, and the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with low inventory and few offers. The basis for spot sales was mostly stable. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton was slightly weaker. The price of hand - picked cotton with about 39 - 40% lint and less than 12% moisture in Xinjiang was 7.15 - 7.35 yuan/kg, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5% impurities was mostly CF01 + 1300 - 1400 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The sentiment in the pure - cotton yarn market further weakened, and prices declined slightly in some areas. Some autumn and winter orders were replenished, and the inventory of spinning mills decreased to some extent, but the decline rate was slower than in previous years, and overall demand this year was lower than in previous years. The sales of all - cotton grey fabric market weakened in some areas, with small - order deliveries maintained. There were also small - order transactions recently, but large orders did not appear [2]. - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures continued to decline slightly yesterday, affected by the decline in crude oil and other agricultural products, but the decline narrowed [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]