Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On September 22, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose and then fell, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel price dropped by 0.46%. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. With supply stagnant and nickel ore prices flat, port inventories increased last week. Nickel pig iron plants' losses narrowed. In September, domestic production increased in both nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel, while export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory changes and the fact that the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless Steel: On September 22, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. In September, stainless - steel production is set to increase. Terminal demand is weak, but the cost side is supported by stable high - nickel pig iron prices and rising high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Despite the loose fundamentals, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and limited inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Futures Market: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,400 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 121,730 yuan/ton, and 121,920 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 100 yuan/ton, + 660 yuan/ton, - 190 yuan/ton, and - 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 66,099 lots (+ 3,446), and the open interest was 45,068 lots (- 5,353) [2]. - The LME 3 - month nickel's official spot price was 15,460 dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton (- 70 dollars/ton), and the trading volume was 4,024 lots (- 650) [2]. - Spot Market: - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price (basis) was 1,300 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. - The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines with different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8% CIF) remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of nickel pig iron with different nickel contents (1.5 - 1.7%, 8 - 12%) were stable, while the battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased slightly [2]. - Inventory: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons [2]. - The LME nickel registered inventory was 218,454 tons, and the total inventory increased by 456 tons to 228,444 tons [2]. - The SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 180,000 wet tons to 9.71 million wet tons last week [2]. - The SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased, with the total inventory at 3,100 tons (- 600) [2]. - The SMM pure nickel social inventory increased to 41,484 tons [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - Futures Market: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,995 yuan/ton respectively, with various changes compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel contract was 138,615 lots (+ 21,690), and the open interest was 130,017 lots (- 1,168) [2]. - Spot Market: - The basis (304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract) was 940 yuan/ton (- 50) [2]. - The prices of different types of stainless - steel products (304, 316L) in Wuxi and Foshan showed some fluctuations [2]. - Inventory: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless - steel inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons [2]. - The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory was 593,400 tons (- 2,900) last week [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 13,500 tons to 880,700 tons [2]. Trade and Policy Information - In August 2025, China's unwrought nickel imports were 24,268.4 tons, a 36.11% decrease from the previous month but a 172.34% increase year - on - year. Norway was the largest import source, with imports of 12,020.2 tons (a 391.89% increase from the previous month and a 1745.85% increase year - on - year), and Russia was the second - largest source, with imports of 5,128.53 tons (a 71.10% decrease from the previous month and a 2.17% decrease year - on - year) [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: Short on rallies [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to wait and see [2].
镍与不锈钢日评：低位震荡-20250923
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:26