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碳酸锂日评:低位震荡-20250923
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-23 01:26

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not significant. The expected supply contraction has weakened, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mining to submit a reserve report. The trading strategy is to recommend waiting and seeing. [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On September 22, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with September 19, with decreases of 560, 540, 560, and 560 respectively. The trading volume was 396,645 lots (+26,286), and the open interest was 271,624 lots (-9,640). [1] Spot Market - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with September 19. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 80 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,909 tons (-575), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137,531 tons (-981). [1] Import Data - In August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,469.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.79% and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. Chile was the largest import source, and Argentina was the second - largest. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. On the demand side, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September. [1]