国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250923

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on September 23, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils show dull demand and wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by the silicon - based sector and show weak fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - Logs fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price of l2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. increased. The basis and spreads showed some changes [4]. - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,185 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan or 0.85%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,380 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.54%. There were changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and demand data were released on September 18. In August 2025, national steel production data and steel import and export data were also provided [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads showed different changes [11]. - News: Price ranges of ferrosilicon 72 and 75 in different regions on September 22 were reported. Import and export data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in August 2025 were also provided [11]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 for both, indicating a weak trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices and basis showed changes [16]. - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts showed little change. Spot prices of various log types in different markets were mostly stable [19]. - News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].