软商品日报：受到供应前景压制，白糖短期震荡偏弱-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for sugar and cotton are both "Sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, suppressed by supply prospects. Cotton prices have bottom support and are expected to rise during the "Golden September and Silver October" season [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15200.0 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Quotes - The closing price of US sugar is 15.85, with a change of - 2.04%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.25, with a change of - 0.08% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets. For cotton, there is a high risk of heat damage in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 10315.0, with a change of - 0.47%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 4096.0, with a change of - 3.21% [2] 3.5 Conclusion - For sugar, the growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, delaying the sugar factory's start - up time. Brazil's sugar production progress is accelerating, and the international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. For cotton, cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised down. The comprehensive meteorological conditions in the cotton - growing areas are suitable, and the textile market is entering the peak season, so cotton prices have the impetus to rise [3] 3.6 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] 3.7 Data Quick View - External Market Quotes: The price of US sugar dropped from 16.18 to 15.85, a decline of 2.04%. The price of US cotton dropped from 66.3 to 66.25, a decline of 0.08% - Spot Prices: The price of sugar in Nanning dropped from 5830.0 to 5800.0, a decline of 0.51%. The price of sugar in Kunming dropped from 5845.0 to 5820.0, a decline of 0.43%. The cotton index 328 dropped from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.39%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang dropped from 15250.0 to 15200.0, a decline of 0.33% - Price Difference Quick View: For example, SR01 - 05 increased from 15.0 to 20.0, an increase of 33.33%. CF01 - 05 decreased from 15.0 to - 5.0, a decline of 133.33% - Import Prices: The price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.4, with no change - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained at 1643.0, with no change - Options: For example, the implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0917, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR601 is 6.3 - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 10364.0 to 10315.0, a decline of 0.47%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 4232.0 to 4096.0, a decline of 3.21% [4]