申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250923

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The prices of polyolefins (LL&PP) closed down. With the decline in crude oil prices and mediocre spot performance, the futures prices continued to be weak. Although the downstream operating rate has rebounded, the production of standard PE and PP products from upstream has also increased. In the medium - term, the market focuses on the actual demand fulfillment. The future trend of polyolefins will be driven by the interplay of cost and supply - demand, and they may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the terminal stocking rhythm around the National Day holiday. After continuous declines, polyolefins may stop falling this week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7130, 7187, and 7229 respectively, with declines of - 39, - 36, and - 21, and drop - rates of - 0.54%, - 0.50%, and - 0.29%. The trading volumes were 210963, 9954, and 64, and the open interests were 580839, 41372, and 145, with increases of 24526, 1271, and 53 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 57, - 42, and 99, compared to previous values of - 54, - 27, and 81 [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6873, 6929, and 6912 respectively, with declines of - 41, - 29, and - 16, and drop - rates of - 0.59%, - 0.42%, and - 0.23%. The trading volumes were 221626, 15142, and 251, and the open interests were 645243, 73930, and 1665, with increases of 35335, 239, and 76 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 56, 17, and 39, compared to previous values of - 44, 30, and 14 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, and North China powder were 2351 yuan/ton, 6535 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2364 yuan/ton, 6625 yuan/ton, 591 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 6750 yuan/ton. The price of mulch film remained at 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot Market: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700, 7050 - 7400, and 7300 - 7750 respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6900, 6700 - 6850, and 6650 - 6900 respectively [2]. News On Monday (September 22), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.64 per barrel, down $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.98 - $63.18. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.57 per barrel, down $0.11 or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.94 - $67.31 [2].