20250923申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250923

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output shows high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installation is surging but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory is increasing weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 80,190 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 45 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 72.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,650 tons with a daily change of - 1,225 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 513,900 tons with no daily change [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,080 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,900 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 45.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 47,825 tons with a daily change of - 1,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,400 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,260 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,200 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 177.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 228,444 tons with a daily change of - 6 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,000 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 45.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 220,300 tons with a daily change of - 2,375 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,510 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,280 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,020 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,505 tons with a daily change of - 140 tons [2].