申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices dropped, then strengthened again starting Friday evening and reached new highs this week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The market anticipates further rate cuts in the remaining two meetings this year. Despite the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts under Trump's pressure, the outlook for rate cuts is clear. The strong US retail sales in August and progress in trade negotiations have led to expectations of investment growth in Q4. The long - term drivers for gold remain clear due to the US fiscal deficit, expanding debt, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. After a short - term adjustment, the expectation of continued Fed rate cuts has sustained bullish sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - Precious Metal Futures Prices: The prices of SHFE gold and silver futures contracts (2510 and 2512) all increased, with silver showing higher percentage increases. For example, the price of SHFE silver 2512 rose by 3.78% to 10348.00, and SHFE gold 2512 rose by 2.46% to 850.98 [2] - Precious Metal Futures Positions and Volumes: The trading volumes and open interests of SHFE gold and silver futures contracts were relatively large. For instance, the trading volume of SHFE silver 2512 was 571883, and its open interest was 433982 [2] - Precious Metal Futures Premiums: The spot premiums of SHFE gold and silver futures were all negative [2] Spot Market - Precious Metal Spot Prices: The prices of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold T + D, and Shanghai silver T + D all increased. London silver had a relatively high increase of 1.21%, reaching 843.32 dollars per ounce [2] - Precious Metal Spot Ratios: The ratios between different precious metal spot prices and futures prices showed some changes. For example, the ratio of gold to silver decreased from 84.04 to 83.10 [2] Inventory - Precious Metal Inventories: The inventory of SHFE gold increased by 999.00 kilograms to 57429 kilograms, while the inventory of SHFE silver decreased by 44080.00 kilograms to 1159443 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 183001.68 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 43194 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - Related Market Indexes: The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.6519, the S&P index increased by 0.49% to 6664.36, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.73% to 4.14, and Brent crude oil price decreased slightly by 0.01% to 66.05. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate increased by 0.15% to 7.1196 [2] ETF and CFTC Data - ETF Holdings: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1.00 ton to 44315 tons [2] - CFTC Speculative Positions: The net long positions of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while those in gold decreased by 1451 [2] Macro News - Argentina's Situation: Argentine President Milei is negotiating to curb market selling and avoid a debt crisis and plans to meet with US President Trump in New York on Tuesday [3] - Fed Officials' Statements: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some are cautious about canceling restrictive monetary policies, some support the recent rate cut as an insurance measure, and some oppose further rate cuts due to high inflation. However, newly - appointed Fed理事Milan is strongly dovish and calls for significant and rapid rate cuts [3] - US Economic Data: US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% (estimated 0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth [3] - US Trade Negotiations: There are multi - party progress in US trade negotiations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation may be limited [3]