申银万国期货早间策略-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market entered a high - level consolidation phase after a long - term continuous rise. Some funds' increased hedging demand at high levels led to differences in long - and short - term forces, causing significant fluctuations in stock indices. However, from a long - term perspective, China's capital market is just at the beginning of its strategic allocation period. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4510.00, 4487.00, 4464.40, and 4440.40 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4506.40, 4493.40, 4484.00, and 4459.00 respectively. The price changes were - 3.38, - 1.60, 13.60, and 12.40, with price change rates of - 0.07, - 0.04, 0.30, and 0.28. The trading volumes were 33705.00, 2045.00, 65934.00, and 8437.00, and the open interests were 57115.00, 1918.00, 149528.00, and 47647.00. The changes in open interests were 57115.00, - 55816.00, - 1855.00, and - 189.00 [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IH contracts were 2918.40, 2913.20, 2913.40, and 2915.20, and the previous day's closing prices were 2922.60, 2922.00, 2923.00, and 2924.40. The price changes were 4.55, 4.60, 5.60, and 4.80, with price change rates of 0.16, 0.16, 0.19, and 0.16. The trading volumes were 15232.00, 780.00, 30635.00, and 4166.00, and the open interests were 23325.00, 681.00, 63298.00, and 12355.00. The changes in open interests were 23325.00, - 22006.00, 2542.00, and 8.00 [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IC contracts were 7181.80, 7105.00, 6984.00, and 6822.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7143.40, 7078.20, 7013.20, and 6840.20. The price changes were - 39.22, - 39.60, 14.20, and 9.20, with price change rates of - 0.55, - 0.56, 0.20, and 0.13. The trading volumes were 32338.00, 2222.00, 67975.00, and 12092.00, and the open interests were 61096.00, 2014.00, 128272.00, and 47420.00. The changes in open interests were 61096.00, - 63664.00, - 3493.00, and - 1369.00 [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices for IM contracts were 7448.00, 7343.80, 7190.80, and 6979.40, and the previous day's closing prices were 7395.60, 7312.40, 7230.20, and 7019.00. The price changes were - 53.08, - 48.60, 28.00, and 25.00, with price change rates of - 0.71, - 0.66, 0.39, and 0.36. The trading volumes were 53016.00, 4738.00, 134489.00, and 21052.00, and the open interests were 85942.00, 4498.00, 186980.00, and 76792.00. The changes in open interests were 85942.00, - 85962.00, - 6679.00, and - 3498.00 [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 13.00, - 0.60, - 65.20, and - 83.20, and the previous values were - 23.00, - 5.20, - 76.80, and - 104.20 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index was 4522.61, with a trading volume of 196.46 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5631.49 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 4501.92, with a trading volume of 225.04 billion lots and a total trading amount of 6038.87 billion yuan. The price change rate was 0.46 [1]. - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the index was 2922.18, with a trading volume of 46.98 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1564.01 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 2909.74, with a trading volume of 57.24 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1632.61 billion yuan. The price change rate was 0.43 [1]. - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the index was 7225.13, with a trading volume of 231.86 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4219.16 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 7170.35, with a trading volume of 271.51 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4506.54 billion yuan. The price change rate was 0.76 [1]. - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the index was 7438.19, with a trading volume of 295.90 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4832.03 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 7170.35, with a trading volume of 271.51 billion lots and a total trading amount of 4506.54 billion yuan. The price change rate was 0.69 [1]. - Domestic and Overseas Major Stock Indices: The price change rates of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were - 1.16%, 0.23%, - 0.19%, and - 0.48% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - CSI 300: The previous values of the basis for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were - 81.73, - 146.93, - 211.93, and - 384.93, and the values two days ago were - 93.88, - 177.08, - 259.28, and - 470.48 [1]. - SSE 50: The previous values of the basis for IH contracts were 8.66, 3.46, 3.66, and 5.46 [1]. - CSI 500: The previous values of the basis for IC contracts were 9.81, - 94.39, - 247.39, and - 458.79 [1]. - CSI 1000: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts were not clearly presented in a unified format, but relevant data was provided for analysis [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic Major Indices and Overseas Indices - Domestic Indices: The price change rates of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 0.22%, 0.67%, 1.18%, and 0.55% respectively. The price change rates of some industry indices such as main consumption, medicine and health, real estate and finance, and information technology were also provided [1]. - Overseas Indices: The price change rates of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were - 1.16%, 0.23%, - 0.19%, and - 0.48% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - A press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" will be held, with central bank and regulatory officials expected to discuss capital market development [2]. - Premier Li Qiang met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing Sino - US cooperation [2]. - The China Institute of Science and Technology Development Strategy released a report showing an improvement in China's comprehensive scientific and technological innovation level [2]. - The Hong Kong SAR government plans to promote the development of the Northern Metropolis for multi - engine economic growth [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - The head of the National Data Administration called on manufacturing enterprises to increase investment in data management [2]. - Relevant departments are accelerating the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [2]. - China has achieved the 14th Five - Year Plan's goal for pumped - storage power stations [2]. - The power spot market in China has shown a positive effect on new energy consumption [2].