申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250923

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal declined significantly. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans to 53.5 bushels, and the reduction was lower than market expectations. It raised the estimated soybean crushing volume to 2.555 billion bushels and lowered the estimated export volume to 1.685 billion bushels, ultimately increasing the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 to 300 million bushels. Currently, US soybeans are gradually entering the harvest and listing period, and the harvest pressure will gradually emerge. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which will put short - term pressure on the soybean market. It is expected that soybean meal will mainly operate under pressure [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Recently, Sabah, Malaysia, was affected by flood weather, but concerns about production have cooled down. According to high - frequency data, SPPOMA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15, 2025 decreased by 8.05% compared with the same period last month. In terms of exports, SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 decreased by 24.7%. Both the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil declined, and Argentina cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which pressured the soybean oil price and dragged down the short - term performance of the oil sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8366 for soybean oil, 9360 for palm oil, 10143 for rapeseed oil, 3034 for soybean meal, 2548 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 38, 44, 75, 20, 5, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.47%, - 3.15%, 0.66%, 0.20%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 were - 332, - 558, - 728, - 768, 1381, and 613 respectively, with previous values of - 338, - 524, - 569, - 802, 1466, and 664 [1]. - Ratios and spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 were - 143, - 81, 444, 1.18, 2.78, and 5143 respectively, with previous values of - 115, - 87, 464, 1.19, 2.76, and 5091 [1]. International Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4363 for BMD palm oil (Ringgit/ton), 1011 for CBOT soybeans (cents/bushel), 50 for CBOT US soybean oil (cents/pound), and 280 for CBOT US soybean meal (dollars/ton). The price changes were - 5, - 15, - 1, and - 4 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 1.44%, - 1.90%, and - 1.41% [1]. Spot Market Domestic Spot - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil, and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 8580, 8700, 9380, 9270, 10370, and 10370 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, 0.35%, - 0.32%, - 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.48% [1]. - Basis: The current spot basis of the above - mentioned products were 214, 334, 20, - 90, 227, and 227 respectively [1]. - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal were - 590, 1400, and 330 respectively, with previous values of - 610, 1340, and 350 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 314, 63, - 71, 288, 748, and 1116 respectively, with previous values of - 361, 4, - 130, 320, 881, and 1020 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 25,644, 1,570, 8,182, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 25,644, 1,570, 8,202, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 [1]. Industry Information - Palm oil: SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 6.57% compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 7.89% compared with the same period last month [2]. - Soybeans: As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 0.9% of the expected total area. The field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states had significantly increased, and the current progress was the same as the same period last year [2].