能源化工日报 2025-09-23-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, due to the mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [5] - For urea, with relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] - For rubber, adopt a bullish approach in the medium - term, and a neutral or slightly bullish short - term strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] - For PVC, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the current situation is supply - demand weak [24] - For p - xylene, due to high load and lack of driving factors, it's recommended to wait and see [28] - For PTA, considering the supply and demand situation and valuation, it's suggested to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, with a weak outlook and relatively high valuation, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.92, or 1.45%, to $62.72; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.86, or 1.27%, to $66.66; INE main crude oil futures fell 4.20 yuan, or 0.86%, to 485.8 yuan. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.39 million barrels to 213.76 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels [1] - Strategy Viewpoints: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, as the fundamentals support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - opens, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] Methanol - Market Quotes: Taicang price dropped 1 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia dropped 20 yuan/ton, southern Shandong rose 10 yuan/ton, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 13 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 8 to - 28 [4] - Strategy Viewpoints: Supply - side production declined, while demand - side port olefin plants restarted. Port inventory continued to rise but at a slower pace, and was at a historical high, while the inland was in a tight balance. It's recommended to wait and see due to mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure [5] Urea - Market Quotes: Shandong's spot price dropped 20 yuan, Henan dropped 20 yuan, the domestic market was generally weak. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 1 yuan/ton to 1660 yuan/ton, the basis was - 50, and the 1 - 5 spread rose 8 to - 53 [7] - Strategy Viewpoints: The futures price fell with increasing positions. The domestic supply recovered, demand was weak, and enterprise inventory rose again. With relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] Rubber - Market Quotes: Rubber spot prices were supported, and futures were oversold. Thailand's rainfall forecast for the next 7 days was not significant, and supply - side positive factors were limited. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [10][12] - Strategy Viewpoints: In the medium - term, adopt a bullish approach; in the short - term, the market has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC01 contract dropped 12 yuan to 4938 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, the basis was - 158 (+12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%; downstream demand - side overall operating rate was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (- 0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [14] - Strategy Viewpoints: Fundamentally, enterprise comprehensive profit declined, production was at a historical high, and short - term new plants were to be commissioned. Domestic demand improved, but export expectations weakened. With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] Styrene - Market Quotes: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price dropped, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The overall operating rate of the "three S" on the demand side increased [17] - Strategy Viewpoints: In the long term, the BZN spread is expected to repair. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, styrene prices may rebound. It's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price dropped, the spot price also declined, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, inventory at production enterprises and traders increased, and the downstream average operating rate rose [20] - Strategy Viewpoints: The market is waiting for favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost - side support remains. With limited downward valuation space for PE, but high inventory pressure, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price dropped, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, production enterprise inventory decreased, trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate rose [23] - Strategy Viewpoints: With remaining planned production capacity on the supply side and high inventory pressure, and the downstream operating rate rebounding seasonally from a low level, it's a supply - demand weak situation with no prominent short - term contradictions [24] P - Xylene - Market Quotes: The PX11 contract dropped 2 yuan to 6592 yuan, PX CFR dropped 8 dollars to 808 dollars, and the basis was 30 yuan (- 66). The PX load in China was 86.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the Asian load was 78.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 million tons [26][27] - Strategy Viewpoints: With high PX load, many unexpected PTA maintenance in the short - term, and expected delay in new PTA plant commissioning, the PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. With lack of driving factors and PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [28] PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA01 contract dropped 18 yuan to 4586 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 45 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was - 84 (- 2) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 42 (+2) yuan. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of September 12, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 million tons [29] - Strategy Viewpoints: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume remains high, and the inventory destocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak. With the PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [29] Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG01 contract dropped 17 yuan to 4240 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 7 yuan to 4344 yuan, the basis was 93 (+1) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 54 (+6) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Port inventory was 46.7 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons [31] - Strategy Viewpoints: With high domestic and overseas plant loads and high domestic supply, the port inventory is expected to be low in the short - term. In the medium - term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic load, and new plant commissioning, inventory will accumulate in the fourth quarter. With relatively high valuation and a weak outlook, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32]