综合晨报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies. For precious metals, the mid - term upward trend remains, but short - term caution is advised. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with various investment suggestions for each [1][2]. Summaries by Commodity Energy - Crude Oil: The bearish trend persists, with geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruptions from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. It is recommended to hold short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur demand declines, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure. It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak - side oscillation, with potential price fluctuations due to geopolitical situations [19]. - Asphalt: Although crude oil prices are falling, asphalt shows relatively small declines. With increased pre - holiday terminal demand in the north and inventory reduction, the futures price shows a strong - side oscillation [20]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Supply and demand improve marginally, and the import cost expectation is positive. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21]. Metals - Aluminum: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, but the inventory inflection point has not appeared. There is resistance at the March high, and the pre - holiday inventory and spot feedback should be monitored [3]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustment increasing costs, showing stronger resilience [4]. - Alumina: The operating capacity hits a new high, and the inventory is rising. The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to reach the support level around 2,830 yuan [5]. - Zinc: LME and domestic inventories are both decreasing. Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to short on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6]. - Lead: The fundamentals improve in the short term, but the external market is under pressure. The price is expected to rebound with resistance [7]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The supply disruption eases, and the overall trend is weak [8]. - Iron Ore: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. - Coke: There is a game between price cuts and increases. The inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips [14]. - Coking Coal: The production increases slightly, and the inventory rises. It is recommended to go long on dips [15]. - Manganese Silicon: The demand and production are increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the "anti - involution" context [16]. - Silicon Iron: The demand is okay, and the supply recovers to a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. Chemicals - Polysilicon: The futures price may face a correction, but there may be a phased repair opportunity if it stabilizes at the support level [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply surplus expectation remains, and the demand increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the month - spread may widen [27]. - PX and PTA: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakens, and the PTA processing margin repair space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory reduction [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: The new - device expectation and weak external sentiment put pressure on the price. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [29]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [30]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Argentina's export tax cancellation affects the market. The short - term market may oscillate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for soybean meal [34]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Argentina's policy changes the market sentiment. In the long - term, considering the biodiesel policy, it is advisable to buy on dips [35]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The international rapeseed supply is seasonally loose, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The oil - meal ratio is expected to rise in the short - term [36]. - Corn: The new - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. The futures price may run weakly at the bottom [38]. - Cotton: The new - cotton production may be high, and the demand support is limited. After the price break - down, short - term observation is recommended [40]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic market focuses on the next - season's output [41]. - Apples: The supply lacks positive drivers, and the short - term price is expected to decline [42]. - Timber: The supply may remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The price increase power is insufficient [43]. - Paper Pulp: The inventory is high, and the supply is loose. The operation suggestion is to observe or trade in the oscillation range [44]. Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): The spot market is weak, and the price increase is difficult to implement. The盘面 may return to the downward channel [18]. - Stock Index: The macro - risk preference is high, and the market style is recommended to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and moderately allocate the cyclical style [44]. - Treasury Bonds: The debt risk is under control, and the liquidity is expected to be abundant. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45].