宁证期货今日早评-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view of the report is to provide short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities and financial products, including analysis of supply - demand relationships, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Kuwait's crude oil production will increase to 2559000 barrels per day from October, and OPEC+ will increase production by 137000 barrels per day in October. The global crude oil supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to sell on rallies [1]. Rubber - Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. Due to typhoon - affected tapping and insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand after pre - holiday restocking, it should be treated with a neutral view [2]. Steel and Related Products - Steel: In the "Golden September", steel demand is slowly recovering. With appropriate production control by building material steel mills, the supply - demand relationship has slightly improved. Before the National Day, steel mills need to replenish stocks, and the cost supports steel prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is limited [4]. - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipping volume fluctuates at a high level, and the arrival volume increases. Iron water production may rise, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Iron ore prices may fluctuate in a narrow range [4]. - Coke: After the second - round price cut, coking profits turn negative, and coke production slightly decreases. Iron water production increases, and the demand for coke is well - supported. The pre - holiday restocking of the middle and lower reaches provides demand support, and the spot price stabilizes. Attention should be paid to the iron water production in the peak season [5]. Livestock and Agricultural Products - Pig: The national pig price is weakly stable. The market's resistance to price drops increases, and the decline slows down. However, the pressure on farmers to sell remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, farmers' willingness to hold prices increases. Short - term long positions can be tried, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [6]. - Soybean: With the increase in the supply of new soybeans, the supply pressure in the market will increase. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and domestic soybean prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [7]. Fats and Oils - Palm Oil: In Malaysia, palm oil production and exports in September decreased. The international palm oil market has high inventories, and the demand in India and China is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - PX: As PX maintenance devices restart and short - process efficiency is good, the supply increases. PTA maintenance devices resume work, and the terminal recovery is limited. PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the overall supply is relatively loose. It should be treated with a weak - neutral view [9]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol production decreases from a high level, downstream demand recovers, and imports are expected to remain high in September. Port inventory continues to accumulate. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Soda Ash: The price of soda ash is relatively stable. Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases. The demand from the float glass industry is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [11]. - Polypropylene: Polypropylene production is relatively stable, new production capacity pressure is released, and the overall supply is abundant. Commercial inventory decreases, and demand is slowly improving. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long positions on pullbacks [13]. Financial Products - Treasury Bonds: China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - centered approach. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the bond market may be slightly positive, but the upward space is limited. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical risks and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to gold. The independence of the Fed brings uncertainties. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards [14]. - Silver: Multiple Fed officials' speeches on interest rate cuts affect the market. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts promotes the rise of precious metals. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold on silver [14].