申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20250923

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The night - session oil prices continued to decline. Iraq has preliminarily approved a plan to resume oil exports from its semi - autonomous Kurdistan region through the Turkish pipeline, potentially increasing the daily crude oil supply by at least 230,000 barrels. In September, drone attacks in Ukraine disrupted Russian crude oil exports, increasing the risk of production cuts, and there are expectations of more sanctions on a certain European country. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase. [3] - Methanol prices fell 0.17% in the night - session. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.63%, up 6.21 percentage points month - on - month. As of September 18, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 72.66%, down 0.09 percentage points month - on - month and 0.61 percentage points year - on - year. The overall coastal methanol inventory increased steadily. As of September 18, the coastal methanol inventory was 1.5428 million tons (at a record high), up 34,800 tons from September 11, a 2.31% increase, and 40.77% higher year - on - year. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 842,000 tons. The estimated arrival volume of imported methanol ships from September 19 to October 5 is between 734,200 and 740,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be bearish in the short term. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - Price Changes: SC near - month futures price decreased by 4.2 yuan to 485.8 yuan, a decline of 0.86%; SC次月 futures price decreased by 4.0 yuan to 483.0 yuan, a decline of 0.82%. WTI near - month futures price decreased by 0.08 dollars to 62.64 dollars, a decline of 0.13%; WTI次月 futures price decreased by 0.02 dollars to 62.34 dollars, a decline of 0.03%. Brent near - month futures price decreased by 0.86 dollars to 66.66 dollars, a decline of 1.27%; Brent次月 futures price decreased by 0.92 dollars to 66.05 dollars, a decline of 1.37%. [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of SC near - month was 2,249, and the open interest was 4,241 with a decrease of 836. The trading volume of SC次月 was 96,133, and the open interest was 35,314 with an increase of 1,533. For WTI and Brent, details of trading volume, open interest and their changes are also provided. [2] - Price Spreads: The current spread between SC near - month and SC次月 is 2.8 yuan, etc. There are also details about other price spreads. [2] Spot Market - International Market: International crude oil spot prices decreased. For example, the OPEC basket price decreased from 70.73 dollars to 69.78 dollars, and the Brent DTD price decreased from 67.80 dollars to 67.15 dollars. [2] - Domestic Market: Domestic crude oil and refined product prices also decreased. For example, the price of Daqing crude oil decreased from 65.46 dollars to 64.74 dollars, and the Chinese gasoline wholesale price index decreased from 7,865 yuan/ton to 7,860 yuan/ton. [2]