贵金属日报：美联储内部分歧加剧，降息路径不确定性提升-20250923

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and the same for silver. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels. The option strategy is to hold off [8]. Core View - The market still tends to bet that the Fed will continue the rate - cut process in October, and the logic of dollar asset substitution remains. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 820 yuan/gram - 850 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the existence of loose macro - expectations and the narrowing expectation of the gold - silver ratio given industrial demand, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10100 yuan/kilogram - 10600 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem emphasized that the current interest rate level is between "slightly restrictive and neutral", and the room for future rate cuts is limited. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he does not currently support further rate cuts because "inflation has remained too high for a long time". Fed Governor Milan said that unless the situation changes, he will continue to promote rate cuts and is willing to vote against again. Geopolitically, France officially recognized the State of Palestine, and 152 out of 193 UN member states have recognized Palestine, with only the US among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not recognizing it [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 831.02 yuan/gram and closed at 846.50 yuan/gram, a 1.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 847.5 yuan/gram and closed at 850.98 yuan/gram, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9971.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10317.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 789,654 lots, and the open interest was 504,051 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10348 yuan/kilogram, a 0.30% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 22, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.147%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.546%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 22, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 1016 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 263 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 362,999 lots, a - 22.77% change from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, in the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,340,506 lots, a - 21.56% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 994.56 tons on the previous day, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,369 tons, an increase of 164 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 22, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was - 19.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1087.95 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.05, a - 0.59% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.60, a - 1.29% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On September 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,222 kilograms, a - 5.12% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 606,548 kilograms, a - 21.67% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,508 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,330 kilograms [7].