国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driving force, and its price will fluctuate [2][10]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][13]. - Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will undergo a slight adjustment; alumina will face downward pressure; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel prices will oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations; stainless - steel prices will fluctuate as a result of the short - term supply - demand and cost game [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals 3.1.1 Gold - Fundamentals: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed increases, with the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closing at 843.00 yuan, up 1.87%, and the night - trading closing price at 850.98 yuan, up 1.46%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. 3.1.2 Silver - Fundamentals: Silver prices also rose, with the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closing at 10283 yuan, up 3.50%, and the night - trading closing price at 10348.00 yuan, up 1.77%. Trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads all had corresponding changes [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [8]. 3.2 Copper - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 80160 yuan, up 0.39%, and the night - trading closing price was 80100 yuan, down 0.07%. The trading volume and positions increased, and inventories decreased. Spot and futures spreads also changed [10]. - Industry News: In August 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased by 8.17% month - on - month but increased by 11.14% year - on - year. September's copper production is expected to decline due to anode copper supply shortages and routine maintenance [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. 3.3 Zinc - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22090 yuan, up 0.23%. Trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads all had corresponding changes [13]. - Industry News: China's central bank's monetary policy is currently supportive and moderately loose, and the risk level of local government financing platform debts has significantly converged [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. 3.4 Lead - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17165 yuan, down 0.09%. The trading volume decreased, and positions increased. Inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai's inventory decreasing and LME's increasing [16]. - Industry News: China aims to promote stable and healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the central bank's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. 3.5 Tin - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 272510 yuan, up 1.39%, and the night - trading closing price was 270610 yuan, down 0.28%. Trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads all had corresponding changes [20]. - Industry News: There were various macro - level news, including Sino - US economic and trade relations, central bank policies, and international political and economic situations [21][23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20745 yuan, with changes in trading volume, positions, and spreads. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2934 yuan, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20340 yuan. Inventories, prices, and spreads of each had corresponding changes [25]. - Industry News: There were differences in views on interest rate cuts among Fed officials [27]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum's trend intensity is 0 (neutral), alumina's is - 1 (slightly bearish), and cast aluminum alloy's is 0 (neutral) [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121400 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12910 yuan. Various indicators such as trading volume, positions, prices, and spreads in the industrial chain had corresponding changes [28]. - Industry News: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants have suspended production due to losses [28][29][31]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral view [33].