国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities for each commodity are given, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, PP, LLDPE, methanol, urea, benzene, and soda ash have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook; rubber, asphalt, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PVC, and the container shipping index (European line) have a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [2][9][13][18][35][39][44][47][63][67][73][78][80]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. In general, many commodities face challenges such as weak demand, high supply, or cost - related pressures. For instance, PX and PTA are affected by weak polyester demand and multiple device overhauls; MEG has a large supply pressure due to new production capacity; synthetic rubber faces high - supply pressure and inventory accumulation; and urea has weak domestic demand and a bearish medium - term trend [4][10][11][18][62]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term rebound possible, but medium - term trend is weak due to weak polyester demand, PTA device overhauls, and loose supply - demand. Hold short - positions and maintain reverse spreads [4][10]. - PTA: Short - term rebound possible, medium - term weak. 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. Although there was a slight increase in polyester sales over the weekend, overall textile and beverage demand is weak, and polyester production capacity growth is limited [4][10]. - MEG: Supply pressure is high this year. With new production capacity coming online, the unilateral trend is bearish. Short positions on the single side and hold reverse spreads [11]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. Although supply growth expectations suppress rubber prices, recent typhoon weather has increased concerns about short - term supply release. Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the pace of spot inventory reduction has slowed [13][15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Short - term trading range. The fundamentals show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate, leading to increased inventory pressure. However, the decline in futures prices has already reflected some fundamental pressures, and the downside space is narrowing [16][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - Factories' inventories are slightly increasing, and social inventories are promoting sales through price cuts. This week, the total domestic asphalt production increased, factory inventories in some areas rose, and social inventories in some areas decreased. The overall market is expected to oscillate [19][32]. 3.5 LLDPE - Short - term weakness and medium - term range - bound trading. The short - term weak commodity sentiment affects PE's performance, but the improvement in PE demand from the agricultural film industry's pre - holiday stocking and the expected reduction in supply from Zhenhai Refining's overhaul in late September support the price [33][34]. 3.6 PP - Cautious about short - selling at low levels in the later stage, and medium - term range - bound trading. Short - term demand has improved, but the weak cost - end causes market fluctuations. Supply - side overhauls are increasing, and downstream purchasing is in a "buy - on - rise" state. Be cautious about short - selling before the National Day [37][38]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Weak current situation but not pessimistic about the future. The Shandong spot market is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The market may show wide - range oscillations [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Wide - range oscillations. The core contradiction is the game between the external market's price - holding strategy and weak domestic demand. The domestic port inventory is high, and the downstream paper market has weak procurement demand. Pay attention to port inventory changes and macro - market news [47][48]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market supply has no significant change, and the overall market demand is average, with only a small number of downstream processing plants having pre - holiday rush orders [50][51]. 3.10 Methanol - Oscillating under pressure, with the downside space narrowing. The upper pressure comes from high imports and high daily production, while the lower support comes from the expectation of fundamental improvement and domestic anti - involution policies [55][57]. 3.11 Urea - The weekly trend depends on pre - holiday spot order collection, and the medium - term trend is weak. Although exports are accelerating, they cannot make up for the weak domestic demand. The price may fluctuate before the National Day due to promotional order - collection, but the medium - term weak trend remains unchanged [60][62]. 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - Medium - term bearish. The short - term is weak due to weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation. Pure benzene has high supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and there is an opportunity for valuation correction [63][64]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is oscillating steadily, with small changes in production and weak downstream demand. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term, and propylene is expected to be weak at high levels. The market is affected by factors such as CP prices and PDH device overhauls [69][74]. 3.15 PVC - Wide - range oscillations. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, with weak domestic demand and potential policy impacts on exports [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a short - term adjustment phase with a weak night - session performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is trading in a narrow range, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is narrowing [80]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Oscillating market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI have declined. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and exchange rates [82].