新能源及有色金属日报：国补继续，沪镍不锈钢价格小幅反弹-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel variety, the impact of macro - events has basically subsided, nickel prices have returned to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and an unchanged oversupply pattern, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel variety, with eleven consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, the downside space for stainless - steel prices is limited. However, the overall demand recovery is not obvious, and it is expected to show an interval oscillation trend [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On September 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 66,099 (+3,446) lots, and the open interest was 45,068 (-5,353) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated slightly around the previous trading day's settlement price. After the day - session opening, stimulated by the news of continued national subsidies over the weekend, it rose slightly to the daily high of 122,110 yuan/ton but then quickly declined, and finally closed with a slight increase of 80 yuan [1] - Nickel Ore: A new round of quotations in the nickel ore market has been released. The FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines' CNC mine is 31. Affected by typhoon weather, nickel ore unloading in some coastal areas is blocked. Philippine mines maintain firm quotations. In the shipping aspect, mines in areas like Surigao are not affected. Downstream iron plants are still making losses and maintain a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market remains in a pattern of continuous supply surplus. The domestic trade benchmark price in September (Phase II) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is currently at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1] - Spot: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and downstream buyers mainly purchase as needed. The spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of various brands are slightly adjusted stably, and some delivery brands show a slight discount. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel remains unchanged at 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 25,536 (-307) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,900 (+456) tons [2] Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On September 22, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 138,615 (+21,690) lots, and the open interest was 130,017 (-4,171) lots. After the night - session opening, it oscillated upward. In the day - session, it further rose close to 13,000 yuan/ton and then slightly declined. The closing price increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. Overall, the restart of national subsidies in China has improved the demand expectation for stainless steel, resulting in a relatively strong price trend today [3] - Spot: It is currently the traditional consumption peak season, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel has slightly recovered. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand is not obvious, and the monthly stainless - steel production has also increased simultaneously, resulting in the spot price not showing an obvious upward trend. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, and the market is filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 340 to 640 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]