农产品日报：现货小幅上涨，豆粕维持震荡-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the粕类 market is neutral, and for the corn market, it is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The outcome of the Sino-US peace talks is yet to be determined, but there are positive signals. The US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, and the decline in oil prices has dragged down the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the fundamentals remain unchanged, with rising inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and ample supply. The focus is on the Sino-US trade negotiations [2] - In the domestic corn market, as new grain gradually enters the market, supply increases. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3034 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.66% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.24% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of the week ending September 7, Canada's rapeseed exports were 4.6 million tons, and the cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season were 57.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3% [1] Market Analysis - The Sino-US peace talks have sent positive signals, but the US biodiesel policy has not met expectations, and the decline in oil prices has dragged down US soybean prices. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable, with increasing inventory and ample supply. The focus is on Sino-US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2431 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton or 1.30% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market News: For the week ending September 11, US corn export sales for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2316 million tons, exports for the next season were 0 tons, and export shipments were 1.5559 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four-week average [3] Market Analysis - Supply: Corn in Northeast and North China is gradually entering the market, with prices in Liaoning first falling and then rising, and prices in North China continuing to decline. Supply is relatively ample [4] - Demand: Deep processing enterprises have low demand, and feed enterprises have low inventory, mainly replenishing on demand and waiting for new grain [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]