集运日报：SCFIS持续下跌，但运价接近盈亏线，盘面止跌反弹，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, but the freight rate is approaching the break - even line, and the futures market has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - For short - term strategies, the main contract remains weak, and it is advisable to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. For arbitrage strategies, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when the contract price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back [4]. Summary by Related Contents Freight Rate Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of business production and operation activities [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [3]. Contract Information - On September 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1093.7, with a 2.00% increase, a trading volume of 4.49 million lots, and an open interest of 4.60 million lots, a decrease of 1685 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].