生猪日报：期价震荡偏弱-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the price of live pigs will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 22, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,706 lots today, with a position of approximately 94,000 lots. The highest price today was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,780 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,795 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not the periods of large consumption increments, and the demand has limited support for pig prices. The long - side logic includes that the farming sector has reduced the weight of pigs, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only, not as investment advice) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 22, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous period, with a decline rate of 0.31%. The average live pig slaughter price in Henan was 12.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, with a decline rate of 0.08%. The average live pig slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 12.34 yuan/kg [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.04%; the 03 contract was 12,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%; the 05 contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.05%; the 07 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.38%; the 09 contract was 12,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.96%; the 11 contract was 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.23% [6]. - The basis of the main contract in Henan was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period, with an increase rate of 26.67% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].