新能源及有色金属日报：下游节前持续补库，铅价高位震荡-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bullish [4] Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding after a decline. With the upcoming National Day holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm may be stimulated. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,125 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 24,370 lots, a change of - 11,605 lots compared to the previous trading day. The position was 27,432 lots, a change of - 5,311 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,170 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,075 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,190 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters mainly shipped on long - term contracts, and some holders quoted at a discount of 150 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Hunan, brand lead smelters also mainly shipped on long - term contracts, with few quotes for scattered orders. Traders quoted at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract or 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2511 contract for ex - factory prices. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory prices. The lead futures fluctuated slightly lower, smelters' quotes were relatively firm, and downstream battery enterprises made small - scale bargain purchases after the pre - holiday stockpiling, with the trading volume in some markets being rather light [2] Inventory - On September 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 55,000 tons, a change of - 12,900 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 22, the LME lead inventory was 221,675 tons, a change of 1,375 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging in the next week, with the buying range between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [4]