新能源及有色金属日报：国内消费淡季转旺季，海外持续去库难缓解-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The domestic zinc market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, while overseas is facing continuous de - stocking. The domestic and overseas zinc market trends are still deviating, with an external strength and internal weakness situation persisting. The zinc ingot export window is about to open, and short - term attention should be paid to the re - balancing impact on the domestic and overseas markets after the change of the import and export window [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $50.91 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,950 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,960 yuan/ton and closed at 22,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 140,526 lots, and the position was 130,425 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,095 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,890 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 46,825 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The domestic and overseas zinc market trends deviate, with the internal - external ratio continuing to widen. Overseas inventory is continuously de - stocking, the premium is rising, and the warrant risk is further increasing, which supports the price. In the domestic market, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, the downstream operating rate is increasing month - on - month, and social inventory has slightly declined. However, the domestic supply - side pressure remains. Although the domestic ore TC may decline in the later period, the imported ore TC continues to rise, so the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged [4].