新能源及有色金属日报：价格回调带动现货成交向好-20250923

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [9] Group 2: Core Views - After the interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, domestic consumption is recovering, and exports are good. The social inventory is at a relatively low level and is showing signs of reaching a peak. For alumina, the supply surplus is difficult to resolve, and the current price has cost support. For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still excessive, and the spread repair with aluminum prices may face obstacles [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Aluminum Spot - On September 22, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,710 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,745 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,717 lots, and the position was 236,067 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 70,761 tons, a change of - 1,198 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On September 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,970 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,170 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,175 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On September 22, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,950 yuan/ton, closed at 2,934 yuan/ton, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.07%. The highest price was 2,961 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,906 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 311,040 lots, and the position was 317,523 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 22, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 16,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]