Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products continuing to strengthen in a fluctuating manner. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively restored in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. Short - term hot metal production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, the iron ore price has support. It is necessary to continue observing the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [5]. - The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, in the future, the black sector may gradually become cost - effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [10]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - demand fundamentals and policies [12][14]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to remain in a volatile range, with limited price fluctuations [17][19]. Group 3: Summary of Each Category Rebar - Market Information: The closing price of the rebar主力 contract in the afternoon was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.409%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 21,922 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 109,368 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin increased by 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy View: Rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved. However, overall demand is weak, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Information: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力 contract was 3380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.177%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the open interest of the主力 contract decreased by 30,384 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy View: Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. The overall demand is weak, although it has some resilience [2]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The closing price of the iron ore主力 contract (I2601) was 808.50 yuan/ton, up 0.12% (+1.00). The open interest decreased by 12,497 lots to 562,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 876,700 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.88% [4]. - Strategy View: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, near - end arrivals increased, hot metal production increased, and steel mill profitability decreased. Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill imports increased. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market Information: After the release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon futures declined. The manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) closed down 1.58% at 5870 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) closed down 1.53% at 5648 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy View: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the trend of the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [10]. Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8950 yuan/ton, down 3.82% (-355). The weighted open interest decreased by 34,046 lots to 519,726 lots. In the现货 market, the price of 553 in East China increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 also increased by 100 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand fundamentals of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the price has an upward space, it needs fundamental improvement. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. Polysilicon - Market Information: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 3.24% (-1710). The weighted open interest increased by 6275 lots to 279,396 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material in the现货 market remained unchanged [13]. - Strategy View: The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policies. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [14]. Glass - Market Information: The glass主力 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.40% (-17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 675,000 cases (-1.10%) [16]. - Strategy View: Terminal demand is weak, supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The soda ash主力 contract closed at 1293 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 1.90% (-25). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 41,900 tons (-1.10%) [18]. - Strategy View: The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. Production is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [19].
黑色建材日报-20250923
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-23 02:16