Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, the progress of interest rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. Different metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - 行情资讯: On Monday, LME copper closed up 0.06% at $10,002/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 145,375 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons compared to last Thursday, and the spot premium in different regions showed different trends. The refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1,870 yuan/ton [3]. - 策略观点: Although the Fed's hawkish stance puts short - term pressure on sentiment, if the interest rate cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly affected. Copper raw material supply remains tight. With the approaching of the long holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - 行情资讯: On Monday, LME aluminum closed down 0.78% at $2,655/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE weighted contract decreased by 14,000 to 511,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 71,000 tons. Domestic mainstream area aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Aluminum bar processing fees fluctuated up, but actual transactions were average. The spot in the East China region remained at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged [4]. - 策略观点: The downstream peak season characteristics of aluminum are not obvious, but as prices fall, aluminum bar processing fees rise again. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below. Short - term prices may repair upwards [5]. Lead - 行情资讯: On Monday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.10% at 17,155 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $14 to $1,997/ton. Domestic and overseas lead inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [7]. - 策略观点: On the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and the TC of lead concentrate has decreased again, suppressing smelting start - ups. On the secondary side, scrap prices have declined, and smelting profits have recovered, with a slight increase in start - ups. Downstream battery enterprises' start - ups are higher than in previous years, and purchases have increased slightly. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc - 行情资讯: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% at 22,092 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell by $6 to $2,913/ton. Domestic and overseas zinc inventories, warehouse receipt information, and various price differences are provided. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 157,000 tons [9]. - 策略观点: The domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low SHFE - LME ratio. The surplus of zinc ore has eased. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in the accumulation trend, while overseas LME zinc inventory continues to decline. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector has cooled. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be weak in the short term [10]. Tin - 行情资讯: On September 22, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 272,510 yuan/ton, up 1.39%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 tons to 6,600 tons. Spot and upstream tin prices rose. Supply is tight due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and enterprise maintenance. It is expected that domestic refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. Demand in the new energy and AI sectors is booming, but traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are still weak. With the arrival of the peak season, downstream consumption is expected to improve marginally [11]. - 策略观点: Short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is approaching, the quantity is still to be observed. With the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices are difficult to fall in the short term and will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [12]. Nickel - 行情资讯: On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. Spot market transactions were average, and the prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and intermediate products showed different trends [14]. - 策略观点: In the short term, although nickel iron prices are strong, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long term, the Fed's easing expectations, China's anti - involution policy, and the RKAB approval are expected to support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - 行情资讯: The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index was 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,420 yuan, down 0.73%. In August 2025, China's carbonate lithium imports increased by 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year [18]. - 策略观点: The commodity index fluctuated downwards, and lithium prices may continue to be under pressure. However, in the peak - demand season, domestic inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in a tight state, providing strong support for lithium prices. Both long and short funds are cautious. It is recommended to pay attention to resource supply and demand expectations. The reference range for the GFE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71,200 - 74,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - 行情资讯: On September 22, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.64% to 2,935 yuan/ton. The position increased by 11,000 to 436,000 lots. The domestic and overseas spot prices and import profit and loss information are provided. The futures warehouse receipt increased by 0.18 tons to 152,200 tons, and the prices of bauxite remained stable [21]. - 策略观点: Bauxite prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus situation. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's bauxite policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - 行情资讯: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,910 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. The prices of raw materials such as nickel iron and scrap steel showed different trends. Futures inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.51% to 987,100 tons [24]. - 策略观点: Indonesia's policy has limited impact on stainless steel. Domestic leading steel mills have strong price - support intentions, and the physical inventory in Foshan is low, providing strong support for prices. However, consumer demand has not improved significantly, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - 行情资讯: As of Monday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.12% to 20,300 yuan/ton. The position and trading volume decreased. The price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices and imported ADC12 prices decreased, and downstream purchases were on - demand. Domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased slightly [27]. - 策略观点: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious. With the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure is emerging, and prices are under pressure above. The support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [28].
有色金属日报-20250923
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-23 02:29