原油日报：伊拉克与库尔德达成初步协议，但恢复出口仍需时日-20250923

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The new agreement between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and Kurdish operators may pave the way for the resumption of oil transportation through the Iraq - Turkey Pipeline (ITP), but significant uncertainties remain. If the pipeline resumes operation, it could increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 30 to 400,000 barrels per day, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4 cents to $62.64 per barrel, a decrease of 0.06%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell 11 cents to $66.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.16%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.38% at 478 yuan per barrel [1] - The EU plans to increase pressure on Russia's access to petrodollars, and its next round of sanctions against Russia will target multiple important links in the global oil industry. Some Russian energy companies will face "full trading bans" and asset freezes, and the EU will add 118 "shadow oil tanker fleet" vessels to the sanctions list, bringing the total number of sanctioned shadow tankers to over 560 [1] - The UN Security Council rejected a resolution to extend the sanctions waiver on Iran on Thursday. If an agreement is not reached before 8 p.m. on September 27, sanctions against Iran will be immediately restored. There is still more than a week for negotiations [1] - Saudi Arabia's new mutual defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change Riyadh's energy relationship with major consumer India. India will continue to buy Saudi oil. Riyadh's crude oil daily sales in July were slightly over 600,000 barrels, making it one of India's top three crude oil suppliers [1] - Kuwait's oil minister said that the latest OPEC+ decision to increase production is related to market developments, and the production increase measures can be suspended or reversed [1] 4. Investment Logic - The agreement between Baghdad, KRG, and Kurdish operators needs to be approved by the Iraqi Council of Ministers. Although SOMO claims that exports can be resumed within days, the specific schedule is still unclear. Kurdish operators have agreed to a compensation fee of $16 per barrel, and the pipeline's resumption also requires Turkey's consent [2] 5. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]