月日国新会点评：政策定调明朗，股指震荡上行可期：发布会核心要点：从成就总结到改革深化的政策信号

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the stock index (centered on the Shanghai Composite Index) will consolidate in the short term and show a clear upward trend in the long term. Attention should be paid to the traction of structural forces on the index weights [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Press Conference Core Points: Policy Signals from "Achievement Summary" to "Reform Deepening" (1) Five - year Report Card of "Stable Quantity and Improved Quality" in the Capital Market - Mature institutional system: With the new Securities Law as the core, relevant regulations have been implemented, and the legal foundation for the capital market has been solidified [2]. - Deepened multi - level market: Reforms in the Sci - tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and the high - quality expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange have improved the multi - level market system, with 964 futures and options varieties covering major industries [2]. - Coordinated investment and financing functions: In the past five years, equity and bond financing totaled 57.5 trillion yuan, and the direct financing ratio increased to 31.6%. Over 90% of newly listed companies are technology - related, and the market value of the technology sector in A - shares exceeds 1/4 [2]. - Enhanced market resilience: The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 15.9%, and the total market value of A - shares increased by 10 trillion yuan in the past year [4]. - Effective supervision: Fines for illegal activities increased by 30% compared to the "13th Five - Year Plan", and regulatory measures such as delisting and mergers have maintained market order [4]. (2) Expansion of the "Circle of Friends" in Reform and Opening - up: Full - chain Breakthroughs from the Financing End to the Investment End - Investment end: By the end of the month, long - term funds held 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [5]. - Financing end: The registration system has been fully implemented, and reforms on the Sci - tech Innovation Board have improved resource allocation efficiency [5]. - Quality of listed companies: Dual - wheel drive of information disclosure and governance, and active mergers and acquisitions have improved the overall quality of listed companies [5]. - Open end: Foreign ownership restrictions have been lifted, and the internationalization of the capital market has increased, with foreign investors holding 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value [5]. (3) Current Policy Tone The regulatory authorities focus on "long - term healthy and stable" development, emphasizing zero - tolerance for violations and leaving room for subsequent policies, which helps stabilize market expectations [7]. 2. Market Reaction and Short - term Logic - Policy expectation shift: The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase as there is no strong stimulus, and the index is at a relatively high level [9]. - Technology and high - end manufacturing as the main lines: The market has responded to policies supporting technology, making the technology sector a core area for long - term capital allocation [10]. - Limited short - term incremental funds: Long - term funds prefer to "buy on dips", and short - term incremental funds mainly come from portfolio rebalancing [11]. 3. Long - term Outlook - Resilient economic fundamentals: New economic drivers such as high - tech manufacturing will improve corporate profitability and support the stock index [13]. - Adequate policy tools: The regulatory authorities have a mechanism to stabilize the market, and global liquidity improvement will enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [14]. - Deepened capital market reform: The capital market's "market - oriented, legal, and international" level has been improved, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate A - shares will increase [15]. 4. Overall Judgment - Short - term: The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around 3800 points, with a fluctuation range of 3700 - 3900 points [17]. - Long - term: Driven by economic fundamentals, policies, and reforms, the stock index has an upward trend [18].