中辉期货热卷早报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1][3][4][5] - Iron Ore: Hold long positions [1][7][8][9] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1][10][12][13] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1][14][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish [1][18][19][20] Core Views - Rebar: Although there are positive changes in supply and demand with improved sequential apparent demand, slightly decreased production, and reduced inventory, the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high due to high hot metal production. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still a drag. After the macro events are realized, the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: The apparent demand has declined, while the production and inventory have increased slightly. The overall change is small, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. The high hot metal production and weak overall steel demand result in a lack of upward driving force on the supply-demand side, and the price will move within a range [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: With increasing hot metal production, reduced supply, and pre-National Day steel mill restocking, the fundamentals are strong [1][7][8] - Coke: The first round of price increase has been proposed but not yet implemented. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and the spot production is relatively stable. High hot metal production leads to high raw material demand. The supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced, and the price will move within a range following coking coal [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: The domestic coking coal production is recovering and approaching last year's level, with an improved supply margin. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is high, and the import volume remains at a high level. The slightly increased hot metal production ensures raw material demand. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the tight situation has improved. There may be policy disturbances on the supply side later, and the price will move within a range [1][14][16] - Ferromanganese: The fundamentals are becoming looser, and after the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking in production areas may become more difficult. The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited. After the rapid release of the short-term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18][19][20] - Ferrosilicon: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. After the short-term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18][19][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of steel futures (rebar and hot-rolled coil) and spot are provided, including different contract months and regions [2] - Supply and Demand Situation: Rebar shows improved apparent demand, slightly decreased production, and reduced inventory, while hot-rolled coil has declining apparent demand and slightly increased production and inventory [4] - Operation Suggestion: The overall downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the supply-demand driving force is limited. The price of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is expected to move within a range [5] Iron Ore - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are presented [6] - Supply and Demand Situation: The hot metal production is increasing, the supply is shrinking, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking makes the fundamentals strong [8] - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions [9] Coke - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures and spot, along with various price spreads and basis, are given [11] - Supply and Demand Situation: The first round of price increase has been proposed but not implemented. Coke enterprises have stable production, and high hot metal production leads to high demand. The supply and demand are relatively balanced [12] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [13] Coking Coal - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are provided [15] - Supply and Demand Situation: The domestic production is recovering, and the import volume is high. The slightly increased hot metal production ensures demand. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not significant [16] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [17] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are presented [18] - Supply and Demand Situation: The fundamentals of ferromanganese are becoming looser, and the supply-demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent [19] - Operation Suggestion: For both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, after the rapid release of the short-term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [20]