光大期货能化商品日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillation" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is facing a generally loose supply side and a lack of clear guidance on the demand side, so the market is oscillating repeatedly [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil remains at the current level, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market still has short - term support, but the increasing supply of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil will pressure the market fundamentals in the coming weeks [3]. - The traditional consumption peak season of asphalt brings stocking demand, but the high - level supply may limit the price increase space, and the short - term price will remain stable [3]. - The fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are under pressure, with terminal demand recovering slowly and oil prices under pressure in the long - term, so the prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The supply and demand of rubber are both increasing, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate mainly, with attention to the impact of typhoons on rubber production in Hainan [4][7]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen, with attention to buying opportunities at low prices [7]. - The demand for polyolefins is improving marginally, with little change in supply, and the overall pattern will be weakly oscillating [7][9]. - The supply of PVC remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, oil prices declined slightly. Iraq plans to restart crude oil exports from Kurdistan. China's crude oil imports in August 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but imports from Russia decreased month - on - month [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main contracts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has short - term support, but future supply may pressure the market [3]. - Asphalt: On Monday, the main asphalt contract declined. The traditional consumption peak season brings demand, but high supply may limit price increases [3]. - Polyester: On Monday, the main contracts of PTA, ethylene glycol, and PX declined. The supply of PX recovers, PTA's fourth - quarter maintenance increases, and the fundamentals of PTA and ethylene glycol are under pressure [3][4]. - Rubber: On Monday, the main contracts of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber rose. The total inventory decreased last week. Typhoons may affect rubber production in Hainan, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][7]. - Methanol: On Monday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic and overseas supply is in a short - term low, and the Xingxing device has resumed production. Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom [7]. - Polyolefins: On Monday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season, showing a weakly oscillating pattern [7][9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Monday, the prices of PVC in different regions were reported. Domestic demand recovers slowly, exports are weakening, and the total inventory pressure is large, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 23, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Kuwait's current crude oil production capacity has reached 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest in more than a decade [13]. - China's crude oil imports in August 2025 were 49.492 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month - on - month and 0.82% year - on - year. Russia was the largest source of imports, and Saudi Arabia was the second - largest [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][31][34] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][45][49] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][64] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, the analyst for crude oil, etc. Du Bingqin, the rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experiences and achievements [75][76][77]