光大期货金融期货日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond: Sideways [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market rebounded after hitting bottom, with the three major indexes rising slightly. The current market is mainly pricing in long - term policy expectations, and the impact of current fundamental factors is limited. In the long run, the Fed is likely to start a rate - cut cycle in September, and the A - share rate - cut channel may also open, which is beneficial to long - term stock index futures. The implementation of the child - rearing subsidy system is expected to boost inflation through fiscal support. The liquidity market is expected to continue, showing obvious structural characteristics and accelerating sector rotation [1]. - On Monday, treasury bond futures closed up. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The short - term signal of the central bank's care for the capital market is obvious. With the current fundamentals being a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the bond market shows no obvious turning - point signal and will continue its sideways trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The market had a bottom - up rebound, with more stocks falling than rising, and the trading volume was 2.14 trillion yuan. The August economic data showed that demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment declined slightly month - on - month. The implementation of the child - rearing subsidy system is a significant policy, and it is expected that the central bank will purchase national bonds to support fiscal policies, promoting inflation recovery. The market liquidity is expected to continue, with accelerated sector rotation [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Monday, treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.22%, 0.20%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 240.5 billion yuan of 7 - day and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 260.5 billion yuan. The short - term signal of the central bank's care for the capital market is obvious. The current fundamentals are a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and the bond market will continue its sideways trend [1][2]. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On September 22, 2025, compared with September 19, 2025, IH rose by 9.6 points (0.33%), IF by 19.6 points (0.44%), IC by 29.2 points (0.42%), and IM by 39.4 points (0.55%). Among stock indexes, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 12.4 points (0.43%), and the CSI 300 rose by 20.7 points (0.46%), the CSI 500 by 54.8 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 by 51.3 points (0.69%) [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On September 22, 2025, compared with September 19, 2025, TS rose by 0.034 points (0.03%), TF by 0.095 points (0.09%), T by 0.14 points (0.13%), and TL by 0.33 points (0.29%) [3]. Market News - At the press conference, the central bank governor stated that the conference was about the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and did not involve short - term policy adjustments [4]. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as their monthly basis trends [5][6][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: It shows the historical trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][18]. - Exchange Rates: The report includes historical data on the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][26]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [30]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, including macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital - flow tracking [30].