中辉能化观点-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Low-level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish continuation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply is in excess, and prices are under downward pressure. LPG is affected by high warehouse receipts and weak cost, with prices trending downwards. L and PP have insufficient upward drivers due to balanced supply and demand. PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals. PX and PTA are affected by supply - demand expectations and macro factors, showing a weakening trend. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and weak demand. Methanol's downward space may be limited. Urea has a supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation. Natural gas prices are affected by inventory and seasonality. Asphalt is pressured by cost and supply - demand. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply and demand in the real estate and downstream industries [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.19%, Brent down 0.11%, and SC down 1.43% [5] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical risks decline, supply is in excess, and the US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly decreased, providing short - term support. In the long - term, supply may push prices down to around $60 [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the $60 support level and the [470 - 480] range for SC [8] LPG - Market Review: On September 20, the PG main contract closed at 4,293 yuan/ton, down 1.72% [11] - Basic Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, demand is weak, warehouse receipts are at a high level, supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [12] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the [4250 - 4350] range [13] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, with a decline [17] - Basic Logic: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, the basis continues to repair. Supply is abundant, and demand is strengthening, but there is insufficient upward drive [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. Pay attention to the [7050 - 7200] range [18] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, with a decline [22] - Basic Logic: The market is bearish, the basis is strengthening, cost pressure is high, supply pressure may ease, and demand is slowly increasing [23] - Strategy Recommendation: The industry can hedge at high prices. Do not chase short positions for absolute prices. Pay attention to the [6800 - 6950] range [23] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, with a decline [27] - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, warehouse receipts decline, supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Exports are strong [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Try long positions on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [4850 - 5000] range [28] PX - Market Review: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, with a decline [31] - Basic Logic: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is high, and macro factors are negative [31] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully and sell call options. Pay attention to the [6500 - 6580] range [32] PTA - Market Review: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, with a decline [34] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, demand is weak, and cost support exists [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the [4525 - 4575] range [36] Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On September 19, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, with a decline [39] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is low, providing some support [40] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the [4200 - 4240] range [41] Methanol - Market Review: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,361 yuan/ton [42] - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is still large, but demand is improving, and cost support is stabilizing [43] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [2331 - 2361] range [45] Urea - Market Review: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton [47] - Basic Logic: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [48] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and sell call options [2] Natural Gas - Basic Logic: US natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, and prices are weakening. Cooling weather provides some support [4] - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously hold short positions [4] Asphalt - Basic Logic: Cost is weak, supply pressure is increasing, and supply - demand is loose [4] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions [4] Glass - Basic Logic: Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase [4] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short on rebounds [4] Soda Ash - Basic Logic: Demand is improving, supply is expected to be loose, and pay attention to downstream restocking [4] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds in the long - term [4]