中辉有色观点-20250923

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold, rated ★★ [1] - Silver: Expected to rise strongly, rated ★★ [1] - Copper: In September, take profit on long positions, rated ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation in September, rated ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are favored in the long - term. Gold is supported by factors such as geopolitical changes, economic uncertainty, and expected global monetary easing. Silver has strong demand and a significant supply - demand gap. Both are expected to rise in the long run. However, silver is more volatile [1][2][3]. - For copper, although there are short - term factors such as the disappointment of interest - rate cut expectations and holiday risk - aversion sentiment, it is still promising in the long term due to its strategic importance and supply - demand situation [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the long term, so it is a short - position configuration in the sector, but short - term risk - aversion sentiment may lead to the need to take profit on short positions [1][7][9]. - Other metals such as lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are currently facing different supply - demand situations, and their prices are generally under pressure to rebound [1]. - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand booming, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices [1][18][21]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - Large inflows of funds and factors such as the risk of a US government shutdown have supported gold to reach new historical highs both domestically and internationally [2]. Basic Logic - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. There is continuous inflow of funds into gold, with the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF reaching a new high since August 2022. Under geopolitical changes and economic uncertainty, gold is strong in the short term and may have a long - term bull market [2]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold can be bought both in the short and long term. For silver, although there is support around 9800, due to its high volatility, careful consideration of position and rhythm is needed when buying in the short term. In general, the long - term bullish logic for both gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has stopped falling and stabilized, while London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, showing a pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets [5]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight. The import volume of copper concentrates and unforged copper in August has different trends. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September may decline [5]. Strategy Recommendation - In September, the domestic LPR remained unchanged, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations were disappointed. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, copper is still promising. Pay attention to specific price ranges for Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose, but the domestic production of zinc concentrates has decreased. The inventory performance is divided, with the LME zinc inventory decreasing and the SHFE zinc inventory increasing. The consumption in the peak season in September is expected to be good, but downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [8]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [9]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production in August increased slightly, and the inventory situation is different for aluminum ingots and aluminum rods. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [12]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [13]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, and stainless steel has also shown a rebound trend [15]. Industrial Logic - Overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The supply - demand situation within the domestic nickel industry chain is differentiated, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight situation in the nickel sulfate segment. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the arrival of overseas goods and the increase in domestic production in September mean that the performance of the peak - season consumption needs to be observed [16]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. Pay attention to the specific price range for nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, closing in the red at the end of the session [19]. Industrial Logic - The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the weekly production and operating rate have increased slightly. The demand has received policy support, and the total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract market attention at the end of the month [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices within the range of [72700 - 74700] [21].