Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressure, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in Q3 and greater surplus pressure in Q4. Brent is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with attention on the support near $65.6 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market has increasing supply and weak demand. Short - term spot prices are expected to run weakly, and the futures are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - The fuel oil market has high - sulfur inventories suppressing prices, and low - sulfur supply increasing with no specific demand drivers. It is expected to be weakly volatile [8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by macro factors and oil prices. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA supply and demand contradictions are expected to ease. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [11][13]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and low - level port inventories. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - The short - fiber market has low processing fees and weak downstream demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market has a transition from peak to off - peak demand, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are affected by macro and supply - demand factors. Supply is expected to increase, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - The propylene market has an expected increase in supply and weak downstream demand. Prices are under pressure [28]. - The glass market has a marginal weakening of procurement sentiment. It is expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - The soda ash market has high - level supply and stable demand. Before the festival, prices are expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - The urea market has a loose supply and weak demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - The methanol market has an increase in supply and high - level port inventories. The rebound height is limited, and it is recommended to short at high levels [40]. - The offset - printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and limited demand. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - The pulp market has high port inventories and weak demand, but there is support below. It is recommended to try long positions in the SP 11 contract [46]. - The log market has a supply - demand double - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have inventory changes and macro factors affecting prices. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decrease in capacity utilization and inventory changes. It is recommended to hold short positions in the BR 11 contract [55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Review - Crude Oil: WTI2510 settled at $62.64, down $0.04 (- 0.06%); Brent2511 settled at $66.57, down $0.11 (- 0.16%); SC2511 fell to 484.2 yuan/barrel, and 477.5 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - Asphalt: BU2511 closed at 3387 points (- 0.41%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3329 points (- 0.69%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [3]. - Fuel Oil: FU01 closed at 2772 (- 0.22%) at night, LU11 closed at 3363 (- 0.30%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo market had specific month - spreads [6]. - PX & PTA: PX2511 closed at 6592 (- 0.03%) during the day and 6562 (- 0.46%) at night; TA601 closed at 4586 (- 0.39%) during the day and 4564 (- 0.48%) at night. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [9]. - Ethylene Glycol: EG2601 closed at 4268 (- 0.67%) during the day and 4249 (- 0.45%) at night. Spot and futures basis and prices were provided [14]. - Short - Fiber: PF2511 closed at 6344 (- 0.91%) during the day and 6318 (- 0.41%) at night. Spot prices in different regions decreased [16][17]. - PR (Bottle - Chip): PR2511 closed at 5816 (- 0.89%) during the day and 5796 (- 0.34%) at night. Spot market had an acceptable trading atmosphere [19]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: BZ2503 closed at 5921 (- 0.75%) during the day and 5905 (- 0.27%) at night; EB2511 closed at 6928 (- 0.92%) during the day and 6901 (- 0.39%) at night. Spot prices and inventories changed [22][23]. - Propylene: PL2601 closed at 6424 (- 0.59%) during the day and 6401 (- 0.36%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different trends [27]. - Glass: The glass 01 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton (- 1.40%), 1179 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different performance [29]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash 01 contract closed at 1293 yuan (- 1.9%), 1276 yuan (- 1.3%) at night. Spot prices in different regions changed [33]. - Urea: The urea futures closed at 1660 (- 0.06%). Spot prices decreased across the board [35][36]. - Methanol: The methanol futures closed at 2349 (- 0.17%). Spot prices in different regions were provided [38][39]. - Offset - Printing Paper: OP2601 was volatile and closed at 4234 at night. Market and raw material prices were stable [40]. - Pulp: The SP 11 contract closed at 4986, down 22 points (- 0.4%). Imported pulp prices in different varieties had different trends [43]. - Log: The 11 - month log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.44%. Spot prices were stable [46]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: RU 01 closed at 15600, down 15 points (- 0.10%); NR 11 closed at 12455, up 30 points (+ 0.24%); BR 11 closed at 11500, down 5 points (- 0.04%). Spot and futures prices in different varieties were provided [50][51][53]. Related Information - Crude Oil: Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The net long positions of traders in crude - oil futures and options increased. Middle - East oil - producing countries increased production, and the demand peak season ended [1][2]. - Asphalt: In different regions, factors such as rainfall, refinery production resumption, and project construction affected supply and demand and prices [3][4]. - Fuel Oil: Russian refineries had maintenance and damage incidents, and Singapore's spot - window transactions were limited [7]. - PX & PTA: PTA plants had restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations due to different reasons [10][12]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory increased slightly, and the downstream polyester sales had different performances [14]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream polyester sales had different performances, and the short - fiber factory prices decreased [16][17]. - PR (Bottle - Chip): Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes decreased slightly, and a 60 - ton bottle - chip device in Jiangyin was under maintenance [19]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Pure benzene and styrene had changes in plant maintenance, production, and port inventories [23][24][25]. - Propylene: The domestic propylene and propane - dehydrogenation operating loads increased [28]. - Glass: There were news about financial and industrial policies, and different regions' glass markets had different performances [29][30]. - Soda Ash: Some soda - ash plants resumed production, and the total inventory decreased [34]. - Urea: The daily production increased, and the开工 rate was high. The inventory of production enterprises increased [36][37]. - Methanol: International methanol production decreased, and some Iranian devices had problems [39]. - Offset - Printing Paper: A paper - making project of Jindong Paper reached a milestone, and the export volume and price of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased [40][41]. - Pulp: The import volume of bleached pulp and wood chips decreased in August, and the central bank official made a statement [44][45]. - Log: The number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs increased, and the inventory decreased [47]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: An Indian tire company adjusted its export strategy due to US tariffs [52][54]. Logical Analysis - Crude Oil: The month - spread of Brent was stable, while that of Dubai weakened. Supply pressure increased, and the price was expected to be weak [2]. - Asphalt: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory trends were different. Futures prices were expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - Fuel Oil: High - sulfur inventories suppressed prices, and low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand drivers [8][9]. - PX & PTA: Affected by macro and oil - price factors, PX supply increased, and PTA supply - demand contradictions eased [11][13]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply was expected to increase, and port inventories were at a low level. Prices were expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - Short - Fiber: Processing fees were low, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - PR (Bottle - Chip): Demand transitioned from peak to off - peak, and processing fees were expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, supply increased, and prices were expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - Propylene: Supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. Prices were under pressure [28]. - Glass: Procurement sentiment weakened marginally. It was expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - Soda Ash: Supply was at a high level, and demand was stable. Before the festival, prices were expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - Urea: Supply was loose, and demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - Methanol: Supply increased, and port inventories were at a high level. The rebound height was limited [40]. - Offset - Printing Paper: Supply increased slightly, and demand was limited. It was recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - Pulp: Port inventories were high, and demand was weak, but there was support below [46]. - Log: Supply - demand was double - weak. It was recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors could place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: Inventory changes and macro factors affected prices. It was recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. Trading Strategies - Crude Oil: Unilateral: Narrow - range oscillation, focus on the support of Brent near $65.6 per barrel; Arbitrage: Gasoline and diesel cracks were weak; Option: Wait and see [2]. - Asphalt: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: The asphalt - oil spread was weakly volatile; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for BU2512 [6]. - Fuel Oil: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for FU01 at high levels [9]. - PX & PTA: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14]. - Ethylene Glycol: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [16]. - Short - Fiber: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [17]. - PR (Bottle - Chip): Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [19][20]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [24][26]. - Propylene: Unilateral: It is recommended to short on rebounds, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Not mentioned [29]. - Glass: Unilateral: The price is expected to be stable before the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [33]. - Soda Ash: Unilateral: Stable before the festival, pay attention to policy and mid - stream pressure after the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [35]. - Urea: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [38]. - Methanol: Unilateral: Short at high levels, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell call options [40]. - Offset - Printing Paper: Unilateral: Short the 01 contract based on the lower limit of the spot - market price; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [43]. - Pulp: Unilateral: Try long positions in the SP 11 contract, enter gradually based on last week's low; Arbitrage: Wait and see, focus on the 11 - 1 reverse spread; Option: Wait and see [46]. - Log: Unilateral: Wait and see, aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [50]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: Unilateral: Hold short positions in the RU 01 contract, wait and see for the NR 11 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [53].
银河期货原油期货早报-20250923
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-23 03:42