研究所日报-20250923

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to regulate cross - quarter funds and maintain liquidity. The reform of the capital market is expected to support the A - share market. The lithium - ion battery export continues to grow, and the energy equipment industry is expected to expand. If the cobalt export ban in Congo (Kinshasa) is extended, the cobalt price may rise. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US leaders' meeting. The domestic economic activity in August weakened comprehensively [2][3][4][5][7] - The real estate sales in September showed a short - term rebound but will face a high - base effect in the fourth quarter. The port activities were slightly active, while the auto sales were weak. The government may increase fiscal support and cut policy interest rates in the future [6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - economic News - The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations and 240.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 22, aiming to regulate cross - quarter funds and maintain liquidity [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman introduced the achievements of the capital market during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the reform is expected to support the A - share market [2] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Sino - US leaders maintain close communication, and the progress of the meeting needs to be closely watched [3] - From January to August, the export volume of domestic lithium - ion batteries was 3.003 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 18.66%, and the export value was 48.296 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 25.79%. In August 2025, the export value was 7.153 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 23.51%, and the export volume was 436 million, with a year - on - year increase of 18.24%. Attention should be paid to relevant companies with a high proportion of lithium - ion battery business [4] - The National Energy Administration and other departments proposed that by 2030, China's energy key equipment industry chain and supply chain will achieve self - control. Attention should be paid to energy equipment manufacturing companies [4] - Congo (Kinshasa) will extend the cobalt export ban until October 15 and implement an annual export quota from October 16. The short - term cobalt price may rise [5] - In August, domestic economic activities weakened comprehensively. Fixed - asset investment, real estate, consumption, industry, services, and exports all declined to varying degrees [7] - Chinese banks are guided to issue loans to local government - related entities to repay their debts. Local governments are accelerating the issuance of "special new local government bonds" for debt replacement and repayment [8] - The government may increase fiscal support by about 0.5% of GDP and cut policy interest rates by 20 basis points in the next 2 - 3 quarters [9] Economic Data - The sales growth rate of 30 - city real estate rebounded from - 10% in August to 15% in early September. The port cargo throughput growth rate rebounded from 5% in August to 7% in early September, and the container throughput growth rate rebounded from 8% to 12%. The steel production decline rate narrowed slightly, and the auto sales and wholesale declined. The net issuance of national debt and new special local government bonds slowed down [6] Market Data - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.863, with a change of - 1.50BP; DR007 was 1.489, with a change of - 2.08BP; USDCNH was 7.1157, with a decline of 0.05%; the US dollar index was 97.31, with a decline of 0.35% [10][12] - The latest A - share market turnover was 2142.5 billion yuan, the turnover rate was 3.92%, and the margin trading balance was 2381.6 billion yuan (as of September 19, 2025) [20] - The top three rising industries were electronics, computer, and non - ferrous metals. The top three industries with net capital inflows on the day were electronics, computer, and machinery equipment. The top three industries with net capital inflows at the end of the session were electronics, computer, and non - banking finance [23][25] - From September 19 to 22, the proportion of TMT trading volume increased by 3.20%, while that of other sectors decreased to varying degrees [30]