工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 22, industrial silicon had a weak and volatile performance. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.83%, and the open interest decreased by 25,607 lots to 285,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,604 yuan/ton, up 121 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,990 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 3.63%, and the open interest increased by 8,068 lots to 124,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount turning into a premium of 1,510 yuan/ton. [2] - In the short term, industrial silicon is supported by cost but suppressed by high inventory. For polysilicon, a draft of the energy consumption policy has been released, with a slight increase in the standards for grades 1 and 2, but the forced clearance is relatively mild. Trump plans to include silicon products in the tax list. Amid the unimplemented domestic and foreign policies, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon. The policy direction deviates from the actual supply - demand situation, resulting in a pattern of short - term pressure and long - term strength. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - The performance of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures on September 22, including price changes, open interest changes, and spot price movements, was analyzed. The short - term situation of industrial silicon and the impact of policies on polysilicon were also discussed, pointing out the coexistence of cost support and high - inventory pressure for industrial silicon, and the complex situation of polysilicon under policy and supply - demand factors. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions increased, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowing significantly. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 72, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 620 tons, the factory inventory increased by 3,800 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,800 tons. The substitution delivery premium of 421 changed, and regional price differences were set. [3] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. The spot prices of various types remained unchanged. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 30, the GFE inventory increased by 0.2 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons. The substitution delivery premium of P - type was set, and no regional price differences were set. [3] - Organic Silicon: The spot prices of DMC, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil in the East China market all increased. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices: Charts showed the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [14][15] - Downstream Product Prices: Charts presented the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [15][17][19] - Inventory: Charts displayed the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory. [23][24][26] - Cost and Profit: Charts showed the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [29][31][35] 4. Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional achievements, and contact information provided. [37][38][39]