Tebon Securities·2025-09-23 03:48Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming seasonal demand in the textile industry, particularly for viscose filament, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is expected to lead to price increases [4]. - The report discusses the strategic move by Xinxiang Chemical Fiber to temporarily halt production for upgrades, affecting 31,200 tons per year of viscose filament capacity, which is approximately 11.35% of the industry total [4]. - The viscose filament industry is experiencing consolidation, with only four major players remaining, leading to a higher concentration of capacity and a greater likelihood of coordinated price increases [4]. - The report notes that the domestic demand for home textiles is increasing, with weaving enterprises' operating rates rising to 68.8%, and exports of viscose filament have also seen significant growth [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance increase of 0% to 51% from September 2024 to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. Industry Dynamics - The viscose filament production process is highlighted for its environmental impact, leading to industry consolidation and a focus on self-regulation among remaining players [4]. - The report indicates that the total industry capacity is 275,000 tons, with Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber holding the majority of the market share [4]. Price Outlook - As of September 22, the price of viscose filament is reported at 43,500 yuan per ton, with expectations for multiple price increases driven by supply disruptions and seasonal demand [4]. - Potential profit elasticity for Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber is estimated to be between 60 to 90 million yuan and 80 to 110 million yuan, respectively, with each price increase of 1,000 to 1,500 yuan per ton [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber as key investment targets in the viscose filament sector [4].