Report Title - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed trends, with precious metals generally rising - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250923 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening up policy space for China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential elasticity of future interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the actual transmission to the US fundamentals after the rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market is fully expecting a 25bps rate cut. The US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October should be monitored. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds from existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place more quickly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. In addition to seasonal factors, the increasing proportion of "debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and combined with the 5.3% growth rate in the first half of the year, the annual target of 5% can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [8]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. However, in the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and the economic recovery expected driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and the weak US dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. In addition, after the rise of domestic interest rates, the allocation value of bonds increases, and bonds should be allocated evenly with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, and interest rate cuts are the main logic in the fourth quarter, with the risk of premature trading of the recovery expectation [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The Fed's decision will lead to global liquidity easing and create policy space for China. The market is dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the Fed's independence risk may affect future rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25bps rate cut. Monitor the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data. Historically, it takes 2 - 3 months for rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - Domestic Macro: In Q3, China's economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. "Debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient Q4 infrastructure funds. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [8]. - Asset Views: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, risk assets will be supported by global liquidity and fiscal leverage. Medium - term (Q4 to H1 next year): equities > commodities > bonds. Short - term in Q4: stock market volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals favored, weak US dollar continues but at a slower pace. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after interest rate rise, and should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, with interest rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery trading [8]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the attenuation of incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the deterioration of options market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The dovish expectations are driving the price up. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - Steel Products: The return of peak - season demand has improved the fundamentals marginally. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [9]. - Iron Ore: Hot metal production has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable overall. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [9]. - Coke: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and downstream restocking has begun. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Supply has increased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have rebounded in tandem. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Ferroalloy: The decline in the peak - season futures market is limited, but there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Ferroalloy: The peak - season expectations support the futures market, but the supply - demand outlook is still pessimistic. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - Glass: Supply disruptions are awaited, and demand has improved slightly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Demand has increased month - on - month, but supply is still growing. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines have occurred, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [9]. - Alumina: The spot market has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends [9]. - Aluminum: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [9]. - Zinc: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The supply of secondary lead has decreased, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [9]. - Stainless Steel: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures market has risen significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [9]. - Tin: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [9]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply has continued to increase, suppressing the upward space of the silicon price. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [9]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - LPG: The valuation has been restored, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The futures price is running below the 3500 pressure level. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Geopolitical disturbances have not had a significant impact, and the fuel oil futures price has weakened. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is following the weakening trend of crude oil. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: Olefins and port inventory are dragging down the market, and there is still a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [11]. - Urea: The price is under pressure along the cost line, and there is a risk of an over - reaction in sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the urea export window will be extended, quota adjustments, and the authenticity of the seventh Indian tender [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The market sentiment is greatly affected by the expected future inventory build - up, and the willingness to hold positions is low. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory trends, and device implementation [11]. - PX: The postponement of device maintenance and capacity expansion have weakened the supply - demand balance, and the high valuation is being corrected. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - PTA: Low processing fees have increased the willingness of enterprises to cut production and conduct maintenance. Although short - term supply - demand conditions have improved, the long - term oversupply situation cannot be reversed. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - Short - Fiber: Terminal orders have improved marginally, but the improvement is limited, and high supply poses potential risks. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Grade PET: There is short - term concentrated replenishment, but the medium - to - long - term demand rebound height is uncertain, and profits are fluctuating. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprises' production - cut targets and terminal demand [11]. - Propylene: The price difference between propylene and PP is oscillating in the range of 500 - 550. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - Plastic: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and PVC is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The expectation of alumina production resumption has increased, and caustic soda prices have rebounded. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [11]. Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The expected month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level for oils and fats. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: Downstream price - fixing for pre - holiday stocking has led to a rebound at the lower end of the trading range. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - Hogs: Supply is sufficient, and prices are weak. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Rubber: The sentiment is bearish, and rubber prices have declined significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The weakness of natural rubber has dragged down synthetic rubber. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - Sugar: Imports have increased month - on - month, and sugar prices have continued to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to imports [11]. - Pulp: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and pulp is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The trading volume is low, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [11]. - Logs: The commodity market has adjusted, and logs are expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to shipping volume and shipment volume [11].
中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，贵金属普遍上涨-20250923
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-23 03:54