国富期货早间看点-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It details the production, export, and growth conditions of agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans, as well as macro - economic indicators and central bank policies at home and abroad [1][6][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 01 & 02 Spot Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 12 is 4369.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.41% and an overnight decrease of 1.64% [1]. - Spot Prices and Basis: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9440, with a basis of 80 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - CNF Quotes: CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions are given. The CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 485 dollars per ton, with a premium of 295 cents per bushel [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 3.1 Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook (September 27 - October 1) in major US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally higher and precipitation is generally lower [3]. 3.2 International Supply and Demand - Palm Oil: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions have different statistics on palm oil exports, with ITS showing an 8.7% increase, AmSpec an 8.3% increase, and SGS a 16.1% decrease [6]. - Soybeans: As of the week of September 21, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the expected 62%. The export inspection volume for the week of September 18 was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the expected range. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year [6][7]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - Oil and Meal Trading: On September 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 15,234 tons, a 177% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.66 tons, an increase of 6.75 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 69.32%, up 1.77% from the previous day [11]. - Inventory: As of September 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 8.79% week - on - week, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased by 1.22% week - on - week. As of September 22, the port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 14.343 tons week - on - week [11][12][13]. - Import Volume: In August 2025, China's imports of palm oil, soybeans, and rapeseed all had different degrees of change compared to the previous month and the same period last year [12][13]. - Agricultural Product Prices: As of September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased compared to last Friday. The prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens also increased [14]. 04 Macro - news 4.1 International News - Interest Rate Expectations: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 89.8%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 75.3% [16]. - Economic Indicators: The Eurozone's September consumer confidence index preliminary value was - 14.9, better than expected [16]. 4.2 Domestic News - Exchange Rate and Central Bank Operations: On September 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (yuan appreciation). The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 26.05 billion yuan [18]. - LPR: The central bank kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [18]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 22, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 5.146 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 9.919 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital outflow of 5.003 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net capital inflow of 209 million yuan [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant content provided.