尿素日报：低价成交放量，关注节前收单情况-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers reduce prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the trading volume improves. The spot price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the order - receiving sentiment before the holiday. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. The medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [7][8][14] Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [19][22] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, on - disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][26] Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - sized urea in China, the difference between overseas and Chinese FOB prices, urea export profit, and on - disk export profit [29][32][35] Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [49][52][55]