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阿根廷暂取消大豆出口税,全球供应预期增加
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-23 05:20

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Argentina's temporary cancellation of soybean export taxes, smooth sowing in South America, and the near - full realization of the US's high - yield expectations have led to a further loosening of the overall soybean supply, which may put pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +44 yuan (+0.47%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8366.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +38.00 yuan (+0.46%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10143.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +75.00 yuan (+0.74%) [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9260.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +10.00 yuan (+0.11%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 100.00, with a daily change of - 34.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8530.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 164.00, with a daily change of - 18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10360.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +70.00 yuan (+0.68%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 217.00, with a daily change of - 5.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Argentina's Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives (such as soybean meal and soybean oil), corn, and wheat until October 31 or until export volume reaches $7 billion, aiming to increase foreign exchange supply and curb the decline of the local currency [2] Brazil's Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean sowing area for the 2025/26 season reached 0.9% of the expected total area, with significant increases in field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states, at the same level as the same period last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association (Abiove) expects Brazilian soybean processing enterprises to invest 5.9 billion reais ($1.11 billion) in the next 12 months, which will increase the country's soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [2] US Agricultural Situation - A US private exporter reported selling 320,068 tons of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. As of the week ending September 18, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, compared with 821,809 tons the previous week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume for the current crop year was 1,569,777 tons, compared with 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [2]